Holiday inventories remain in good shape and show no signs of being depleted even as U.S. consumers broke shopping records for the five-day Thanksgiving period, the National Retail Federation said Tuesday.
For the most part, inventory levels are balanced, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told reporters. Shay’s comments seemed to rule out widespread overstocked conditions, as well as concerns over product stockouts that might trigger a late-cycle inventory replenishment push.
NRF said that 200.4 million consumers shopped over the holiday cycle, which began on Thanksgiving, included Black Friday and ended with Cyber Monday. That broke last year’s record of 196.7 million shoppers and surpassed NRF’s 2023 expectations by 18 million.
Shay said that despite concerns that many Americans have drawn down pandemic-related savings, there is “substantial savings still sitting on the sidelines.”
On average, each shopper spent about $321 on holiday-related items during the cycle, said NRF, which conducted a survey along with Prosper Insights & Analytics. About 121.4 million people visited physical retail locations to browse and buy. That was down from 122.7 million in 2022. Online shoppers totaled 134.2 million, up from 130.2 million last year.
Nearly half of consumers surveyed were about halfway through their holiday shopping at the time the five-day cycle ended, NRF said.
About 76.2 million shoppers visited stores on Black Friday, up from 72.9 million in 2022. About 90.6 million consumers shopped online that day, compared with 87.2 million last year. About 4 million fewer consumers shopped online on Cyber Monday than in 2022, NRF said.
NRF said the data is consistent with what it expects to be a 3% to 4% year-over-year rise in holiday spending to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
None of the numbers used in the survey are adjusted for inflation. NRF has said it would be too complicated to adjust every data point in its survey for inflation.
NRF defines the holiday season as between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, although an increasing number of consumers begin their shopping as early as October, incentivized by retailer promotions that get pulled forward on the calendar.
Shay said that access to free shipping appears to be the key factor in pushing undecided online shoppers to loosen their purse strings.