Trans-Pacific container spot rates were largely unchanged last week, signaling the market has peaked and is likely to soften through the remainder of 2026, according to analyst Xeneta.
Average spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast edged up 0.2% in the week ending Oct. 23 to $8,311 per forty-foot equivalent unit. Rates to the U.S. East Coast also increased 0.2%, reaching $11,525 per FEU.
“This confirms the U.S. trades have peaked and we expect them to soften through the remainder of 2026,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, in a note to clients.
The weekly plateau leaves trans-Pacific rates well above earlier benchmarks. West Coast rates were up 18.9% from July 1 and 342% from Feb. 28, which Xeneta uses as its pre-Hormuz crisis benchmark. East Coast rates were up 31.7% and 335%, respectively.
Asia–U.S. East Coast rates also remained more than three times those from Asia to North Europe.
In contrast to the largely flat trans-Pacific market, Asia–North Europe spot rates rose 6.8% during the week to $3,698 per FEU, while rates to the Mediterranean climbed 5.8% to $4,442.
The European increases reversed steady declines since July, even as the continuing return of container shipping services to the Red Sea freed up fleet capacity.
“This is a conundrum because the release of capacity into the global fleet should ease pressure on rates, but we are seeing the opposite,” Sand said.
Major carriers are making a substantial but partial return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk (OTC: AMKBY)/Hapag-Lloyd and Cosco/OOCL have restored some services; ONE, HMM and Yang Ming have announced returns.
Strong demand has helped support European rates, according to Xeneta, with volumes shipped from Asia to Europe increasing 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026.
“Disruption such as Middle East conflict brings volatility and sudden shocks, but demand is a powerful upward force for rates,” Sand said. “If demand is not there, then rates will collapse, but it has been strong enough on the European fronthauls to prevent this, even as Red Sea capacity returns.”
Despite the weekly gains, North Europe rates remained 33.2% below July 1 levels, while Mediterranean rates were down 36.7%. Compared with Feb. 28, however, rates were still up 67% into North Europe and 33% into the Mediterranean.
On the trans-Atlantic, North Europe–U.S. East Coast rates slipped 0.2% during the week to $2,963 per FEU, remaining 16% above July 1 and 101% above the pre-Hormuz crisis benchmark.
Why it matters: The diverging trends suggest a return to Red Sea routes alone will not determine how quickly container shipping costs ease. U.S. importers face the prospect of declining rates from still-elevated levels, while strong European cargo demand is supporting renewed increases despite additional vessel capacity becoming available.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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