Rail Traffic SURGES: Intermodal Hits Record Highs

North American rail traffic is booming, with intermodal volumes hitting record highs. But as the economy recovers, a critical bottleneck threatens to derail this growth: declining drayage capacity. We dive into the latest AAR weekly report and analyze the surprising rebound in chemical and petroleum shipments, while exploring how a shortage of drayage drivers could cap future expansion.

North American rail traffic rose 3.5% in week 38, with intermodal volume leading the charge at 5.3% and carloads up 1.5% year over year, according to Association of American Railroads data. In the U.S. alone, intermodal volume surged 6.3% and carloads climbed 3%, pushing the overall domestic year-over-year gain to 4.8%. Railroads say domestic intermodal has been running at a record pace, but a shrinking drayage driver pool threatens to become the binding constraint on further growth.

The drayage workforce has eroded steadily since the height of the supply chain crisis. Jason Hilsenbeck, who runs LoadMatch and drayage.com, tracked 531,000 drivers registered to handle drayage at the 2022 peak. By the end of last year that figure had fallen to 483,000, and as of July of this year only 467,000 drayage drivers were available to move 53-foot containers — a 3% decline during a period of rising volume.

“If you lose 63,000 drivers in a 2-year period for drayage capacity,” said Bill Stephens, the available pool may already be limiting what intermodal carriers can offer shippers. JB Hunt flagged the issue directly at an investment conference, signaling that its own growth is constrained by how much drayage capacity it can secure.

“As long as the truck capacity remains tight and the fuel prices remain elevated and railroad service levels hold up, those are 3 good things that would tell you that intermodal volume is going to continue to be on a tear.”

Stripping out coal and grain to get a cleaner read on the industrial economy, U.S. carload traffic was up 4.9% for the week. Chemicals and petroleum shipments — the second-largest carload commodity category — jumped 7.7%, broken out as a 7.2% gain in chemicals and a 9.4% rise in petroleum and petroleum products. Metallic ores and metals posted an even stronger 9.5% increase. The chemical rebound is notable because shipments had softened from an early-year record pace beginning around April and May.

One persistent soft spot is motor vehicles and parts, which fell 1.8% compared with a year ago. The decline is largely a base-effect issue: buyers accelerated EV purchases in August and September 2023 ahead of the federal tax credit expiration on September 30 of that year, inflating the prior-year comparison. With auto sales continuing on a pace above 16 million units, the underlying demand picture looks steadier than the year-over-year figures suggest.

BNSF’s Quantum intermodal product, operated with JB Hunt and carrying a 95%-or-better on-time guarantee, has grown every month, as has a companion cross-border service into Mexico — a signal that service reliability is a key driver of volume conversion from highway. The railroads’ ability to hold intermodal gains over time has historically depended on keeping fuel prices high enough to make rail economical; when diesel eases, marginal freight tends to migrate back to trucks.

On a separate note, Brightline filed for bankruptcy protection, though the Florida passenger carrier continues to operate and is posting record revenue and record passenger loadings. The company uses an aggressive dynamic pricing model — sending discount emails to fill trains and charging full price when seats are scarce — to maximize revenue per seat. Analysts expect the proceeding to result in a debt restructuring rather than a shutdown, allowing service to continue.

• North American rail traffic rose 3.5% in week 38, with U.S. intermodal up 6.3% as domestic volumes hit a record pace.
• The drayage driver pool has shrunk from 531,000 at the 2022 peak to 467,000 as of July, a drop of roughly 64,000 drivers that threatens to cap intermodal growth.
• Brightline filed for bankruptcy but continues to operate, with a debt restructuring — not a shutdown — seen as the likely outcome.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.