Shipping Volatility: Are Freight Markets Balancing?

The latest freight market update reveals Labor Day tender rejections surged significantly, marking the strongest increase since 2021. Dive into the numbers on truckload rejections, spot rates, and intermodal trends to understand the current market volatility and what shippers can expect as we head into Q4.

Truckload tender rejection rates jumped back above 14.5% in the week leading into Labor Day, a roughly 100-basis-point move that marks the strongest increase around that holiday since 2021, according to a Sept. 8 FreightWaves SONAR update. The spike in rejections was accompanied by a meaningful rise in spot rates across a majority of U.S. markets, underscoring how little slack remains in available truckload capacity.

As of Tuesday, Sept. 8, tender rejections had settled at approximately 14% — still about a half-percentage-point higher month over month. Spot rates stood at $344, up nearly 2% month over month, while contract rates remained elevated at $272 plus fuel, a figure roughly 20% above year-ago levels. Intermodal contract rates were also up 7.5% to 8% year over year.

“Markets really still are not balanced,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “While we aren’t seeing an increase in demand, there is still absolutely volatility in this market.”

“It’s really vulnerable to disruption as we’re not seeing capacity pick up, right? This is still a capacity-driven market that we’re watching. So, any upward pressure from demand could absolutely turn the dynamic really quickly to even more favorable for underlying carriers and create even more pressure for brokers and for shippers.”

Total tender volumes increased less than 2% heading into the holiday before falling back sharply on Monday, a typical pattern when shippers close operations over long weekends. Van de Kamp noted that some of the volume decline reflects modal shift rather than a broad pullback in goods demand — a distinction that will be important to watch as import flows convert into over-the-road freight in the coming weeks.

Intermodal demand remained firm through the holiday stretch. Domestic container volumes averaged about 20% higher year over year last week, while international container volumes were up more than 10%. The SONAR Inbound Ocean TEU Index, which tracks container bookings destined for U.S. ports, averaged about 10% above spring levels, pointing to a prolonged peak import season that is gradually fading into September.

Van de Kamp noted that most of the softness in spot rates and rejections seen since the Fourth of July can be attributed to normal seasonal pressures and demand losses to intermodal, rather than any structural loosening of the market. With shippers returning to operations this week and pushing seasonal volumes, capacity is expected to remain under pressure at least through mid-month, at which point the market will reveal whether a true freight demand peak is developing or conditions normalize again.

• Tender rejection rates hit 14.5% heading into Labor Day — the biggest holiday jump since 2021 — before settling at ~14% as of Sept. 8.
• Spot rates reached $344 (up ~2% month over month); contract rates were up nearly 20% year over year at $272 plus fuel.
• Domestic intermodal container volumes ran ~20% above year-ago levels last week, with the inbound ocean TEU index averaging 10% above spring levels.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.