Unlock critical freight market insights with Sonar’s new MCP offering. Learn how AI can access real-time data on truckload and intermodal rates, volumes, and capacity. In this update, we dive into the current market: spot rates are up 50% year-over-year, while intermodal contract rates remain steady, driving road-to-rail savings near 30%. Discover how domestic intermodal is gaining traction, despite international volumes softening. Get the full picture on tender rejections, diesel prices, and what this means for your budget heading into bid season.
Truckload spot rates have climbed 52% year over year to $3.56 per mile, while contract rates — up 25% to $2.88 per mile — remain at a 52-week high but continue lagging spot, according to FreightWaves SONAR data presented in a Nov. 11 market update. The persistent spread between spot and contract is adding pressure to shipper budgets as annual bid season approaches.
Meanwhile, the gap between truckload and intermodal pricing is keeping road-to-rail cost savings historically wide. The SONAR Intermodal Cost Savings Index showed a 30.2% savings advantage for rail as of Nov. 8, a figure that has held above 30% for five consecutive months and has nearly doubled year over year. Intermodal contract rates, by contrast, are up only 3% to 5% year over year, a fraction of the truckload contract increase.
“Savings have nearly doubled year over year and have held above 30% for five months,” said Julie Van de Kamp, citing the MCP-generated analysis of SONAR data. “They are easing slightly as intermodal spot catches up, but the gap remains historically wide.”
Rail volumes are reflecting that savings opportunity. October outbound rail averaged 44,700 units — the highest monthly reading since 2026 and up 9% year over year — before slipping to approximately 43,800 month-to-date in November. Van de Kamp attributed the November dip to a tech outage at CSX and flooding on a BNSF line through New Mexico that interrupted service for each railroad for roughly one to two days in late October. Loaded outbound containers averaged 35,500 in October, also up 9% year over year, with loaded boxes accounting for 80% of outbound volume, indicating the growth reflects genuine freight demand rather than empty repositioning.
“The truckload market is moderately tight. Spot rates are up about 50% year over year, while intermodal contract rates have barely moved. That gap keeps road-to-rail savings near 30%, and rail volumes are running at 2026 highs,” said Van de Kamp.
On the international side, domestic intermodal volumes rose 8% year over year in October while international intermodal was up 11%, though both have softened from peaks reached in August and September. Inbound ocean TEU bookings, tracked by SONAR’s IOTI index, came in at 1,904 month-to-date in November — up 11% year over year — but have slipped roughly 5% to 6% since peaking in July, with further softening expected into December. Tender rejections on the truckload side sit at 12.88%, roughly double November 2025 levels but down 1.3 points month over month and 17% from a June peak, signaling that capacity is gradually easing from summer tightness.
Van de Kamp flagged drayage capacity as a potential emerging constraint on intermodal growth. While SONAR does not currently track drayage-specific indices, short-haul truckload volumes in the 100-to-250-mile range are up 14% year over year — a figure she said is likely driven in part by rising drayage activity as more freight shifts from road to rail. Short-haul tender rejections are up approximately 5% to 5.5% year over year, though that segment remains somewhat looser than the broader truckload market. Diesel nationally averaged $6.13 per gallon as of the latest DOE reading, down 2.6% week over week.
- Truckload spot rates rose 52% year over year to $3.56 per mile, with contract rates up 25% to $2.88 per mile — keeping pressure on shipper budgets ahead of bid season.
- Road-to-rail cost savings held at 30.2% as of Nov. 8 and have stayed above 30% for five consecutive months, nearly doubling year over year as intermodal contract rates rose only 3%–5%.
- October outbound rail volumes averaged 44,700 units — the highest since 2026 and up 9% year over year — though a CSX tech outage and BNSF flooding caused a brief late-October dip.
This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.
