Uber Freight warns tight capacity could fuel Q4 freight rate surge 

Uber Freight said shippers that continue sourcing transportation capacity week to week are particularly vulnerable if freight demand suddenly accelerates during the fourth-quarter peak.

September and October provide a relatively stable window for most markets to repair routing guides and secure capacity ahead of peak season, according to the report. 

Truckload and Mexico were rated as having “high” exposure heading into late October, while intermodal and Canada were rated at medium severity.

Truckload rates remain sharply above 2025

National average dry van contract linehaul rates reached $2.39 per mile in July, an 18% increase from July 2025, according to data cited by Uber Freight. The 13-cent increase from June was the largest June-to-July gain on record.

Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.39 per mile in July, 47% higher year over year.

Spot pricing has subsequently eased as the seasonal July peak faded. Van spot linehaul averaged $2.21 per mile during the week of Aug. 26, but remained 35.6% above the same period last year and 23.8% above the nine-year seasonal average.

Carriers are also seeking double-digit contract increases this year and next, according to Uber Freight.

The company’s primary tender acceptance rate improved from 76% in July to 78% in August as repriced routing guides began to hold and spot conditions softened. That remains substantially below the 90% to 94% range seen during the previous three years.

Uber Freight said capacity is not rebuilding as quickly as typically expected during a tightening freight cycle. The report estimates more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers have exited the industry over the past year, while Class 8 truck backlogs represent roughly nine months of production.

As of Sept. 10, the SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index for the U.S. (STRI.USA) was at 13.45%, much higher than the same period in the previous three years.

Mexico capacity remains tight despite easing at Laredo

Cross-border transportation remains one of the more constrained portions of the freight market.

Uber Freight said about 20,000 Mexican truck drivers lost U.S. visas between April 2025 and April 2026, while the number of active Mexican-domiciled southern border carriers was 6.3% lower in late June compared with late December.

Capacity around Laredo has eased from extremely tight second-quarter conditions but remains significantly tighter than a year ago.

The Laredo dry van load-to-truck ratio stood between 8.0 and 8.5 in mid-August, down from roughly 10-to-1 during the second quarter but still 61.9% higher year over year.

Mexico-to-U.S. long-haul spot rates remained 8% to 15% above mid-February levels, with increases of as much as 30% on critical corridors. Produce exports through Laredo increased 8% year over year during the second quarter, according to the report.

Uber Freight said those constraints are prompting more companies to rethink how they move freight across the border.

Shippers that previously depended on direct-trailer capacity using B-1 drivers are increasingly incorporating transloading into their networks in Laredo — and are beginning to explore the strategy in El Paso.

“Transloading is moving from workaround to network design,” the report said.

Uber Freight cited one major beverage manufacturer that had relied solely on direct B-1 capacity but began missing delivery appointments in Nuevo Laredo. The company rerouted critical freight through a Laredo cross-dock and is now developing a hybrid network combining transloading for time-sensitive shipments with direct B-1 transportation for more flexible freight.

Diesel adds another layer of pressure

Fuel costs could further complicate freight pricing heading into bid season.

The national average diesel price reached $5.652 per gallon during the week of Aug. 24, the highest level of 2026 and 52.4% above the same week last year. Diesel had fallen as low as $4.58 per gallon in early July before rebounding.

Uber Freight warned that smaller truckload carriers operating on thin margins could park equipment rather than haul freight at a loss if fuel volatility persists.

At the same time, shippers face an increasingly complicated trade environment following changes to U.S. tariff policy and the shift of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement into annual reviews.

The combination leaves transportation networks with little margin for another unexpected disruption.

Uber Freight recommends that shippers use the relatively stable September-October period to secure baseline capacity, repair underperforming routing guides and establish backup carriers before the traditional late-October freight peak.

Why it matters: The prolonged freight downturn appears to be giving way to a more carrier-favorable pricing environment across multiple transportation modes.