Some parts of South Florida are already dealing with major gas supply issues as thousands flee the state ahead of Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall Wednesday night.
GasBuddy, an online service that tracks thousands of retail prices around the country, reported that as of 11 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, about 16.5% of gas stations in Florida were out of gasoline.
In the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, almost 44% of gas stations have no gasoline.
“You have millions of folks headed north on I-75 or I-95 to try and get out of the state, ahead of the landfall of Milton,” Patrick De Haan, an energy analyst at GasBuddy, told FreightWaves in an interview. “The kink in the supply chain is that the system is not built for millions of Floridians all filling up at the same time, so naturally, stations are falling a bit behind. That’s why we’re starting to see fuel outages.”
Ned Bowman, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Marketers Association, told FreightWaves in a brief phone call that the truck stops in his state were “fine” and operating without supply outages.
Hurricane Milton is expected to slam into the Tampa area sometime Wednesday night as a Category 3 storm with maximum wind speeds of around 155 mph, less than two weeks after the state was hit by Hurricane Helene.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) also warned of rainfall of up to 15 inches in portions of western Florida through Thursday. Milton could generate “considerable flash, urban and area flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding,” according to NHC.
Related: Florida ports suspend operations ahead of powerful Hurricane Milton
At a press conference Tuesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis addressed the gasoline situation.
“There is no fuel shortage,” DeSantis said, according to media reports of the press conference. “Fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida by port and what we’re doing to bring it in on the ground. But lines at gas stations have been long. Gas stations are running out quicker than they otherwise would. And that is causing the state of Florida to help assist with the mission to be able to get fuel to the gas stations.”
In response to questions from FreightWaves, a spokeswoman for travel center operator Love’s said its stores in the western Florida region were not expecting to run out of fuel, but that it had “experienced minimal downtime primarily due to traffic getting the loads back into the stores.”
She said deliveries to the company’s stores will continue “up until stores close prior to landfall or until the roads become unsafe to operate.”
Specifically, Love’s fuel transport arm, Gemini Motor Transport has 15-29 extra trucks with sleeper berths operating as Milton looms. That number was 15 during Helene, she said. “This number will increase as needed after the storm moves through and we evaluate our needs,” the Love’s spokesperson said.
Closures are possible, she added. “Love’s will heed all evacuation orders and close (a store) if one is issued or we deem a safety risk.”
As far as the price of fuel, in broader futures markets, Milton is having no bullish impact yet. To the contrary, ultra low sulfur diesel Tuesday at about 2 p.m. EDT was down more than 9 cents a gallon. But analysts are citing trader reaction to statements out of China regarding that country’s stimulus (less than what many expected) as the reason for the decline, rather than any reaction to the hurricane, which is not impacting production or refining in the Gulf of Mexico.
As Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida, experts said the storm poses a supply chain risk to the entire state.
“Fuel supplies for much of Florida, especially central Florida, arrive from Texas and Louisiana through Port Tampa Bay. If Milton shuts down the port, it could seriously disrupt the fuel supply into western and central Florida, which could then hinder recovery efforts,” Benjamin Ruddell, director of the Fewsion Project, told FreightWaves.
Ruddell is also a professor at Northern Arizona University’s School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems. Fewsion uses comprehensive data mapping to monitor domestic supply chains down to individual U.S. counties.
Port Tampa Bay handles nearly half of Florida’s fuel supply, providing 43% of the state’s fuel used by jets, airplanes, tractor-trailers and passenger vehicles. The region’s fuel arrives by tanker ships.
Port Tampa Bay, as well as ports in Manatee, Key West, Fort Myers and St. Petersburg, were closed Tuesday, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.
“Fuel usage actually increases before a hurricane, because everybody is topping off their fuel tanks and hoarding it and doing disaster preparation,” Ruddell said. “In Florida, your wholesale fuel storage and bulk fuel storage is in the Tampa area and in the Orlando area. Those big fuel tanks that you would normally use for fuel racks to fill tanker trucks that will go and distribute the fuel to those two cities and metro areas could be where the biggest damage is going to be from the storm.”
Seçkin Ozkul, assistant professor of supply chain management at the University of South Florida, said one of the big questions about Hurricane Milton is how much damage it will cause to Port Tampa Bay and other critical infrastructure.
“What is the damage going to be? How long is the port going to be closed? Is it going to have a huge impact?” Ozkul told FreightWaves. “Florida’s fuel supply chain operators normally prepare for such scenarios and preposition fuel supplies, or increase shipments ahead of the storm. After a hurricane, the focus will basically mainly shift to restoring port operations as quickly as possible, repairing any damaged infrastructure, and also coordinating with alternative ports to keep the fuel flowing.”
Ozkul said if the port or other critical supply chain infrastructure in the area is damaged or unable to operate for any length of time, it could lead to rising fuel prices.
“With heightened demand, as people are rushing to fill up before and after the storm, we may see gas prices increasing a little bit in the region,” Ozkul said. “Florida’s economy is dependent on a constant fuel supply system for trucking, aviation and tourism industries. If we are seeing a lot of delays in refueling trucks, it could basically cause a domino effect in the supply of goods, including essentials like food, medical supplies and so on.”
John Kingston contributed to this story.