The stunningly big numbers tied to electric infrastructure from the American Transportation Research Institute this week reinforce the chicken-and-egg cliche about electric trucks. Yet even as they were being digested, more announcements of battery-powered trucks rolled in.
Interrupting the dream
Is it wishful thinking to imagine roadways and cities filled with near-silent trucks with no tailpipe emissions? The American Transportation Research (ATRI) analysis suggests the answer is yes. Will we get there someday? Probably. But it won’t be immediate. And all the hockey stick projections for electric vehicles won’t make it so.
If, as ATRI estimates, across-the-board electrics would consume 10% of the nation’s electric power generation, then we shouldn’t be lulled into believing in a quick transition.
A webinar by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals this week showed that realistic thinking pervades fleet managers and OEMs.
Reality check
“Our on-highway tractors are where the bread and butter is with the LT series, the regional haul and LoneStar,” said Chet Ciesielski, Navistar Inc. vice president of on-highway business. Those are diesel trucks today and will be for the foreseeable future.
In fact, the first fruit of Navistar’s $3.7 billion merger with Volkswagen’s Traton Group is the S13, an integrated diesel powertrain. It will be the last diesel engine Navistar offers, but it will be updated and around for a long time after its debut next year.
Navistar in 2023 also expects to take the wraps off a battery-electric version of its RH Series, the third electric vehicle in the company following the CE bus and the eMV medium-duty truck. These are linchpins in Navistar’s goal to sell 50% electric trucks by 2030 and 100% by 2040 with a fully carbon neutral business by 2050.
How soon is when?
“[There’s been a] push toward how soon can we get there, how reasonably, how practically, but certainly there’s been a push in the past few years,” said Chad Dittenberner, Werner Enterprises senior vice president of the van/expedited division.
An electrified truck has to do more than plug in.
“For the Coca-Cola system, the packing isn’t something that has been focused on,” said Rob Haddock, Coke’s group director of planning and logistics. “As we think about goals for greenhouse gas reduction and getting to a different place by 2030, that opens up the conversation with the transportation part of our global industry. There’s all these great suggestions about what you should do and really no formality as to how you should measure them.”
Regulation driven and incentivized
Emission reduction regulations in California and from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drives the agenda. Changes in 2024, 2027 and likely in 2030 are forcing changes faster than they might occur naturally.
“The reality is the operational cost of electric is going to be the hardest part to reach between the infrastructure and the batteries and the trucks,” Ciesielski said.
Electric trucks cost two or three times a new diesel’s price tag of $125,000 to $150,000. The overall cost falls later through less maintenance and part replacements. Federal and state incentives dramatically reduce the up-front outlay, but then there’s the question of charging.
“It’s not one solution, one product,” Dittenberner said. “Other technologies will be a part of it because I don’t think getting one of these technologies is the only answer. EVs are starting to get here, but the cost is very expensive. Without incentives, it is going to be a challenge to take quick action.”
And the hits just keep on coming
Yet the cautionary tone of OEMs and fleets does little to slow the flow of announcements about electric trucks. Just this week:
Sibling story under the Ryder badge
Volvo Trucks announced seven Class 8 VNR Electric trucks leased to Ryder System Inc.
will haul parts from supplier parks to the Mack Trucks assembly plant near Allentown, Pennsylvania. Volvo Trucks North America started using its electric trucks for parts movement to its New River Valley plant in Virginia more than a year ago.
The repeatable 8-mile route is ideal for a regional haul truck capable of up to 275 miles on a single charge. A two-shift operation completes eight roundtrips.
Tesla uses its Class 8 Semi to move parts around Gigafactories in Sparks, Nevada, and Austin, Texas.
Daimler Trucks’ eCascadia rollout accelerates
Schneider said it will soon receive the first of what is now a 100-unit order of the trucks for its nearly exclusive Freightliner fleet. About half of those trucks come with big spiffs paid for by the California Air Resources Board.
Schneider previously reported orders for 62 eCascadias. Now it is adding 30 more, giving it one of the largest electric fleets in North America.
”We are moving beyond the battery-electric truck testing phase to running an operation at scale,” Schneider President and CEO Mark Rourke said in a news release. “In combination with rail movement, we can offer our intermodal customers meaningful emissions reduction value by utilizing BEV dray trucks.”
Daimler recently delivered the first of up to 800 eCascadias to Sysco and two trucks to Penske Truck Leasing.
Split advances BorgWarner’s focus on electrification
Tier 1 automotive and commercial vehicle supplier BorgWarner, which purchased the Delphi Technologies splitoff three years ago, is doing its own split, creating more room to run in electrification while bundling its fuel systems and aftermarket segments into a stand-alone spinoff.
It is an increasingly common strategy. General Electric broke itself into three pieces and brought every advertisement in Tuesday’s print edition of The New York Times to talk about it.
BorgWarner paid $880 million in 2021 to purchase Europe’s Akasol battery business and has made a couple of smaller acquisitions, including the purchase of Switzerland’s Drivetek for $37.4 million on Dec. 2.
The spinoff of nonelectric businesses achieves BWA’s disposition goal by 2025. The company thinks it can exceed its goal of generating 25% of revenue from EVs by 2025.
Briefly noted …
Merry Christmas from Paccar … The truckmaker is paying an extra cash dividend of $2.80 per share, increasing its quarter dividend payout and paying a 50% stock dividend — one new share issued for every two shares owned by Jan. 17. Paccar’s stock price has been moving steadily higher on record earnings and strong profit margins.
Million engine milestone … Detroit, the Daimler Truck subsidiary and maker of heavy-duty engines, celebrated the 1 millionth engine made at its plant in Redford, Michigan. The plant located west of downtown was acquired in 2000 by Daimler AG and has been operating for more than 84 years. It makes DD13, DD15 and DD16 engines.
Training future techs … The Peterbilt Technician Institute recently graduated its 100th class. The 10 graduates of the 12-week advanced technician program are among the nearly 1,000 factory-certified technicians trained and placed at Peterbilt dealer service locations since the launch of the program in 2013.
Big order Down Under … Closing with one more electric truck announcement: Australian express freight company Team Global Express has placed an order for 36 Volvo electric trucks, the company’s largest purchase to date in Australia. The trucks will hit the streets of Sydney during the first quarter of 2023.
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading. Click here to get Truck Tech via email on Fridays. Join me for the weekly Truck Tech TV show airing live on FreightWaves TV on Wednesdays beginning in January.
Alan