Charter operator National Airlines on Monday signed a letter of intent to purchase its first 777 freighter aircraft from Boeing days after the aerospace manufacturer slightly upped its 20-year forecast for cargo jets amid strong recovery in shipping demand.
Orlando, Florida-based National Airlines is expected to soon finalize a contract for four 777 freighters, which will join an expanding fleet of nine Boeing 747-400 freighters, the companies announced on the opening day of the Farnborough International Airshow in England.
National Airlines operates charter flights and scheduled service under long-term contracts with airlines and other customers for dedicated carriage. One of its largest sources of revenue is the U.S. Department of Defense. National has been busy ferrying munitions to Poland for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of the country in early 2022.
The preliminary order comes on the heels of Emirates SkyCargo and Turkish Airlines placing combined orders this month for nine 777 freighters.
Boeing on Friday projected that the air cargo market will increase by two-thirds by 2043, which translates to 4.1% compound annual growth in traffic. The company has maintained its 4.1% estimate for long-term demand growth since 2022 but now says carriers will need 45 more freighters than in last year’s commercial market outlook. Projected new deliveries increased to 1,005 from 925.
The bump in estimated freighter need is likely the result of better economic conditions for air cargo than a year ago, when the market was at the bottom of a 16-month downturn. Demand began to recover in the fourth quarter and is up 12.5% year to date compared with 2023, according to various data providers. The primary growth driver has been e-commerce, followed by diversion from ocean shipping related to lengthy detours around the Red Sea conflict zone.
E-commerce shipping platforms account for more than 11,000 tons of goods moved by air each day, the equivalent capacity of 100 777 freighters, Boeing said.
The latest analysis predicts an additional 2,845 freighters will enter service to meet growth in global trade and e-commerce, 35% of which will be new-build aircraft. An additional 65% (1,840) will come from aftermarket conversions of used passenger jets, and more than two-thirds of those will be standard size. Boeing said 810 large freighters will be needed, 660 of which will be factory-built and the rest conversions.
The global freighter fleet in 2043 will reach 3,900 aircraft, up from 2,340 today, according to Boeing. The global fleet of large widebody freighters will increase 77% in the next 20 years.
Rival Airbus last week offered a more conservative outlook, with annual airfreight growth of 3.1%. Express shipments will grow 4.4% annually, outpacing growth of general cargo at 2.7%. Airbus said airlines will need 2,470 freighters over the next two decades, of which 940 will be new builds and 1,530 will be passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Supply chain challenges, engine inspection and manufacturing backlogs and regulatory scrutiny of Boeing production quality has slowed down aircraft build rates, forcing airlines to retain older aircraft longer than planned and reducing the pipeline of used feedstock available for freighter conversions.
Airbus and Boeing development of next-generation freighter models is also several years behind schedule.
Logistics providers have expressed concern there could be insufficient freighter capacity in a few years if hundreds of aging widebody cargo jets are retired and aircraft manufacturers aren’t producing replacements quickly enough, which would result in rates going up.
Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.
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