The benchmark retail price of diesel is now at a level not seen for more than three years.
This week’s Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price dropped another 3 cents a gallon to $3.491. It has not been this low since a price of $3.477 was posted Oct. 4, 2021, several months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine that sent the price above $5 for several months in 2022.
Since the all-time high of $5.81 on June 20, 2022, the DOE/EIA price has fallen $2.319 per gallon.
Prices last week were mostly on the decline. Oil markets do not seem to have decided on a particular direction as a result of the coming return of Donald Trump to the White House. The one bullish argument is that a renewed regiment of sanctions against Iran could restrict that country’s output, which according to S&P Global Commodity Insights has moved up to 3.19 million barrels a day after being at 2.56 million barrels per day two years ago.
The bearish argument is that less government regulation of oil output could put more supply on the market, though at 13.5 million barrels a day, U.S. crude output is at its highest level on record.
Inventories of ULSD, according to the latest weekly report of the EIA, have barely budged the past four weeks. They stood at 105.7 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 11. Last week, they were 105.2 million barrels.
But one piece of encouraging news from the perspective of diesel consumers is that the U.S. refining industry, even though margins are not particularly strong, is pumping away. With refinery maintenance season mostly done, the EIA reported that U.S. refineries in that week ended Oct. 11 operated at 91.4% of capacity. That’s the highest in two months.
The market as measured by the ultra low sulfur diesel price on the CME commodity exchange rose sharply Monday on a variety of factors, including an unplanned shutdown of a significant Norwegian oil and gas field in the North Sea. But even with that increase of just over 8 cents per gallon to a settlement of $2.2514, the CME ULSD settlement Monday was just 1.25 cents a gallon more than where it settled on Nov. 8.
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