Loaded and Rolling: Driverless truck exemptions; ATRI on driver-facing cameras

Morgan Stanley releases shipper survey results

Thomas Wasson

2 years ago

To cone or not to cone? Autonomous vehicle makers ask the question

Trucking safety advocates are at odds with corporate-backed attempts at implementing a roadside safety exemption for autonomous trucks. For those unaware, current regulations require drivers to use three emergency reflective triangles, or at least six fusees or three liquid-burning road flares, if they stop on the road for reasons other than traffic.

FreightWaves’ John Gallagher noted earlier in the year that self-driving trucking companies Waymo and Aurora petitioned the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in January for a five-year exemption for their automated Level 4 and Level 5 trucks regarding the current roadside warning device requirement. They want to use cab-mounted beacons instead. If reflective triangles aren’t enough excitement, the use of lamps (legalese for light bulbs) is also included in the exemption. Gallagher wrote, “Because the cab-mounted devices for which the companies seek an exemption are flashing lamps, Waymo and Aurora also want an exemption from a requirement that exterior lamps be steady-burning.”

These exemption requests have roiled multiple safety groups, which include the Truck Safety Coalition (TSC), Citizens for Reliable and Safe Highways and Parents Against Tired Truckers. They argue there is a lack of transparency regarding how often autonomous trucks face such roadside events.

Another challenge may be regulatory overreach. Gallagher wrote, “Safety advocates argue, however, that because the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has yet to issue performance standards for trucks equipped with automated driving systems, FMCSA in effect would be allowing highly automated trucks to be tested on the roads without having in place performance standards, permitting or reporting requirements.”

ATRI report on driver-facing camera approval and usage

(Source: American Transportation Research Institute)

A report published Wednesday by the American Transportation Research institute (ATRI) examined driver-facing and road-facing cameras (DFCs/RFCs). One major question the report examined were drivers’ thoughts and concerns about DFCs. It turns out a majority of drivers do not hold them in high regard. The devices got an overall approval score of 2.24 out of 10. The report notes that low driver approval is partially based on privacy and administrative concerns. ATRI noted in its data set only 32% of those surveyed used DFCs compared with 72% who had RFCs.

The challenge for motor carriers and those who insure them is getting more drivers to adopt these devices and improving their relationship with drivers. Part of the reason, according to the survey, is that legal and insurance experts note that when driver-facing footage was available, it exonerated drivers in 52% of insurance claims and 49% of litigation cases. This led to settlements in 86% of cases versus going to trial.

One major stumbling block when pitching DFCs to drivers is whether footage is gathered continuously or only if an event occurs. From my personal experience, cameras facing the road are super helpful when an accident or unsafe driving event occurs. But I predict cameras that face in the cab could be a double-edged sword for carriers, as the recording of distracted drivers could cause higher costs versus not having the ability to show that data.

Market Update: Morgan Stanley shipper survey results

A report by Morgan Stanley released Monday suggested some cause for optimism based on a quarterly survey of shippers. Part of this optimism revolves around inventory levels and expectations, with 38% of shippers polled saying they will likely maintain current inventory levels, a 10-percentage-point increase compared with the fourth quarter. Inventory normalization appears to be on the near horizon, with 75% of shippers surveyed expecting inventory normalization by the end of 2023 and 50% saying it would happen in the second half of the year.

Regarding the trucking outlook, FreightWaves’ Todd Maiden wrote, “There was no change in truckload capacity expectations, with most respondents indicating intermodal will soon be the loosest mode after being the tightest over the last three quarters. Even with lower TL rates and rail service issues, 43% of shippers said they are shifting some freight from TL to the rails. This was the first increase in a year for the metric, with only 25% saying they would make the change a quarter ago.”

FreightWaves SONAR spotlight: Forecast has great expectations for spot rates

Summary: Spot market rates are continuing to fall, but based on forecasting data from the FreightWaves National Truckload Index, a spot market bottom is expected to be reached by the final week of April. The NTIF, a 28-day forecast based on the current NTI rate, includes all dry van loads moving more than 250 miles, as well as historical rates and other inputs such as wholesale fuel prices and contract rates. The correlation of 85 is for the full 28 days, and a seven-day outlook has a correlation of 99.

One major challenge for trucking companies is determining where and when the pricing floor will be reached. Given falling fuel prices, contract rates and other inputs such as customs data, the spot market floor is expected to reach $2.10 per mile by April 28 before rising to $2.17 per mile by May 9.

For carriers operating on the spot market, it may take additional time to feel this change, as freight brokers and customers do not have unified capacity-buying power. Regardless, this forecast spot market bottom is ahead of market consensus, which expects rising contract rates beginning in H2 2023. Spot market rates often lead contract rates by 30-45 days on average, so upward movement in spot rates should eventually drag up contract rates pending customer RFP schedules.