A new analysis by researchers at Trace One on issues related to food imports finds that the upcoming presidential election and the International Longshoremen’s Association strike at East and Gulf Coast ports have shined a spotlight on imports.
The study monitored changes in food imports over time, the amount of food imported compared to total consumption, top trading partners and top food items imported for each state.
The report, published Oct. 21, reviewed the most recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to find what impact possible import tariffs could have on the U.S. food supply.
It found that from 2008 to 2022, total U.S. consumption of imported food and beverages rose from 12.4% to 17.3%.
Politics, labor and the impact of tariffs on consumers
The Trace One report cites the 2024 presidential race and the port strike as events that have refocused America’s attention on its dependence on foreign goods. It noted that both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have signaled a shift away from free trade policies, referencing a New York Times article diving into the matter.
“President Trump has proposed blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports, with even higher rates on goods from China,” the Trace One report stated. “Vice President Harris’s policies are less defined, but indicate potential tariff adjustments to address economic and labor concerns.”
Matt Shay, chief of the National Retail Federation, has said increased tariffs could blunt consumer spending, stating “tariffs are paid by the importer and not the producing country, and that is passed on to the consumer.”
The Trace One report stated that while opinions on protectionist policies vary, experts generally agree that U.S. consumers could feel the effects of tariffs immediately – namely, shortages and higher retail prices on food products.
“Currently, the U.S. imports nearly a fifth of its food supply from abroad, and the average American household spends nearly 14% of its annual budget on food and beverages,” the researchers write. “For many, this is already a burden – 28% of U.S. adults report difficulty affording food, and 13.5% of households are classified as food insecure, meaning they lack reliable access to sufficient nutrition.”
Key imports likely to be affected
While the U.S. has traditionally exported more agricultural goods than it imported, the report stated that this balance has shifted in recent years. It said demand for imported goods has surged, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and consumer preferences for year-round access to fresh produce.
The report found that nearly 60% of fruits and nuts consumed by Americans now come from abroad.
“Similarly, imports of milled grains and oils have grown sharply, now accounting for 57.4% of consumption, compared to 31.5% in 2008,” the report stated. “Other categories like sweeteners and vegetables have also seen notable increases, with imports now constituting 45.0% and 40.4% of consumption, respectively.”
Trace One also included an infographic breaking down the biggest food and beverage imports for each state across 11 categories. Top imports from a handful of states included avocados in California, prepared foods in Alaska, beef in Nebraska, wine in New York, salmon in Florida, and animal and vegetable oils in Texas.
The report stated that Mexico and Canada account for the largest share of U.S. food and beverage imports with over $80 billion in food products exported between the two to the U.S. in 2023.
“Other significant trade partners include Chile, which supplies salmon, and Brazil, a major source of coffee,” the report stated. “China, India, and Indonesia are key contributors from Asia, exporting a variety of products such as oils and shrimp. Australia and New Zealand are important suppliers of beef, while countries like Peru and Vietnam export grapes and cashews, respectively.”