Despite the temporary end to the government shutdown announced late Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau failed today to release its report on manufacturers’ durable goods shipments, inventories, and orders for the month of December 2018.
Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods posted a modest rebound in November, driven by a surge in aircraft orders. Orders excluding transportation fell for the second time in three months. This is the latest in a string of disappointing releases from manufacturing, raising some questions about the health of one of the key drivers of freight demand headed into next year.
Factory orders for durable goods rose in August, driven by a large increase in commercial aircraft orders. Orders historically are a leading indicator of future shipments, and August’s results suggest that freight demand on the durable side of the economy should remain solid.
Manufacturing growth is likely to remain solid in the 2nd quarter, as orders for new production remained healthy through March. This should help keep freight demand strong, even if things have moderated from the torrid pace seen in previous months.
Durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March, driven by a 2nd consecutive surge in commercial aircraft orders. Core orders remained essentially unchanged during the month in a sign that freight demand will continue to normalize.
Durable goods orders fell in January, indicating that demand may be losing some steam after running hot over the past several months.
The spot market, which has been trending up for much of this year and is near record highs, is showing no signs of slowing down, according to DAT.
