Next year is expected to be a transformative one for carriers. With the incoming Trump administration’s promise of widespread deregulation, carriers may finally see a long-awaited boost to their bottom lines in the coming months. 

The freight recession has had an unprecedented impact on carriers, with the state of the economy to the top of the list. 

“The freight recession since mid-2022 is the most protracted downturn since I entered trucking in 1991. Even some of the most profitable carriers have significant financial challenges,” said J. J. Keller senior transport editor, Mark Schedler. 

FMCSA has several key proposed rules and initiatives that could affect carriers in the coming year. In 2016, however, the Republican administration required the elimination of two current rules for each proposed rule. This is likely to happen again.

Additionally, the Supreme Court decision to overturn the Chevron deference case earlier this year held that judicial deference is appropriate versus agency guidance where Congress was ambiguous in its regulations. The decision can curtail federal agencies’ power to interpret the laws they administer and spur legal challenges. 

These factors come together to create an ambiguous regulatory environment. That said, FMCSA has outlined multiple initiatives in its late 2024 and 2025 rulemaking agenda. Carriers should be familiar with the agenda and ready to act on its contents. 

Drug and alcohol testing

The oral fluid drug testing rule – in effect since June 1, 2023 – still cannot be used as an alternative to urine testing. After a testing kit is approved, however, two labs could be certified to produce kits in approximately six months. By April 2025, carriers may be permitted to use saliva testing.

Carriers need to ensure their DOT testing team is trained and ready if they choose to use oral fluid testing. If they use a third-party administrator, carriers should confirm those partners are taking the required steps. Third-party providers, such as J. J. Keller, are equipped to help manage DOT testing programs.

Proposed changes aimed at making recordkeeping easier are also on the horizon.

A notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) regarding electronic drug and alcohol recordkeeping is expected to be published for comments in December of 2024. This rule would allow for the use of electronic signatures, forms and recordkeeping by agencies administering DOT-regulated testing programs. Currently, entities conducting DOT testing must use, sign and store paper documents exclusively.

Additionally, the potential reclassification of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III has the trucking industry concerned. While this is a Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) initiative, this could impact drug testing of commercial motor vehicle drivers that require a commercial driver’s license (CDL). DOT drug and alcohol testing rules allow testing for drugs on Schedule I or II. If downgraded to Schedule III, industry groups want an exception to test safety-sensitive employees for marijuana use.

Carrier reviews, safety ratings and prioritization for audits.

Remote audits spiked during the coronavirus pandemic. This change has not been permanent, however, and onsite comprehensive reviews are continuing to increase from COVID lows.

FMCSA  is tasked with identifying risky carriers and taking corrective action aimed at making them safer. In-person audits provide an opportunity to dig deeper than remote audits, meaning these checks can uncover costly issues for unprepared carriers.

“Electronic fleet management systems that cover each compliance area make internal audits and FMCSA visits much easier. The days of managing a fleet in spreadsheets and filing cabinets are numbered,” Schedler said. 

J. J. Keller Encompass is one system designed to automate compliance and electronic recordkeeping while improving high-quality driver retention and preventing accidents. 

Currently, if a crash is deemed non-preventable, FMCSA will remove it from the CSA Crash Indicator. This is designed to keep non-preventable events from driving down CSA scores. This Crash Preventability Determination Program is being reviewed for expansion, with the proposed goal of increasing the types of crashes that qualify as “non-preventable.”

To take advantage of this program, carriers must challenge crashes with supporting documentation. Dash cam footage can be submitted as part of this process. J. J. Keller’s VideoProtects® Fleet Camera System can support these efforts.

Vehicle initiatives

There are a number of vehicle initiatives included in the late 2024 and 2025 FMCSA rulemaking agenda. 

• Rules for testing and operating automated driving systems are expected to come down in December 2024.

• FMCSA and NHTSA’s proposal to require automatic emergency braking systems on new heavy vehicles totaling 10,001 pounds and greater is expected in January 2025.
  
• A controversial speed limiter mandate in May 2025 would affect vehicles weighing 26,001 pounds or greater with an electronic control unit (ECU) on the engine.

These initiatives were all created with safety in mind, but many carriers worry about the costs associated with these types of rules.

“Since these systems are currently voluntary, technology mandates will increase the demand for trained technicians to support the systems which have already driven up the cost of new vehicles, repairs, downtime and maintenance,” according to Schedler. 

A handful of other initiatives are also expected to come through over the next several months, including more flexible CDL testing standards and a few ELD changes in June 2025.