NRF: U.S. container imports expected to rise as holiday peak season begins

Major container ports in the United States handled 1.6 million TEUs in September, down 6.6 percent from August and 1.6 percent from September 2015, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates

   Import volumes at major container ports in the United States are expected to rise through the end of 2016 as the peak holiday shopping (and shipping) season is already underway, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
   Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 1.6 million TEUs in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, down 6.6 percent from August, the busiest month of the year, and 1.6 percent compared with the same 2015 period.
   The report forecasts October volumes at 1.67 million TEUs, a 7.5 percent increase from the prior year.
   For the remainder of 2016, import volumes are projected to reach 1.54 million TEUs in November and 1.5 million TEUs in December, year-over-year increases of 4.4 percent 4.5 percent, respectively.
  The numbers come as NRF is forecasting $655.8 billion in holiday sales, a 3.6 percent increase over last year. Although cargo volumes do not correlate directly to sales, volumes do serve as a barometer of retailers’ expectations, NRF said.
   Total volumes for the year are expected to grow 2.2 percent to 18.6 million TEUs compared with the full year in 2015. First half volumes stood at 9 million TEUs, up 1.6 percent from the prior year period.
   Looking ahead to the beginning of 2017, January is forecast at 1.54 million TEUs, up 3.6 percent from January 2016; February at 1.49 million TEUs, down 3.2 percent year-over-year; and March at 1.38 million TEU, up 4.6 percent from last year.
   Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said U.S. imports are growing, but not at the rapid rate seen in past years.
   “Despite all the good economic news recently, we are faced with imports growing only about 2 percent this year,” Hackett said. “Whether that is merely part of the aftermath of the Hanjin bankruptcy or a sign of weakening demand is not yet clear. Unless there is a major disruption, however, growth should be modest but sustained during the first half of 2017.”
   Global Port Tracker, which is produced by Hackett Associates for the NRF, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.