AccuWeather is reducing its projected number of named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season following an “unusual” August with low tropical activity.
The Pennsylvania-based weather forecasting agency announced this week that it is downgrading its projections. Forecasters now predict that this year’s season will see 16 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, of which three to six are expected to be major. Four to six storms are predicted to hit the United States.
AccuWeather meteorologists previously predicted that this year’s hurricane season would spur 20 to 25 named storms. The updated prediction comes after meteorologists forecast that this season would see above-average tropical storm activity.
“So far, only five named storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin. However, one of those storms — Hurricane Beryl — did manage to intensify to a Category 5 storm and cause significant and widespread damage to the Texas coastline, including leaving millions without power for an extended period of time,” said FreightWaves meteorologist Kaylee Nix.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has not made any changes to its official forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Of the five named storms this year, three have been hurricanes.
Hurricane Beryl, which slammed into Texas on July 8, led to $28 billion to $32 billion in damage and economic loss, AccuWeather said in its update. Texas ports closed and ceased operations due to the storm.
Debby, a Category 1 hurricane, hit Florida’s Big Bend in early August before climbing up the East Coast, shuttering ports along the way. The storm dumped historic amounts of rain over the Southeast.
Hurricane Ernesto impacted Puerto Rico and Bermuda in mid-August.
No storms over Labor Day weekend
No storms formed over Labor Day weekend — a rarity, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in the update. The last time a storm didn’t form in the Atlantic Basin over Labor Day was 1997.
“Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin are ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the surge of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane,” DaSilva said.
Nix called September “the climatological peak of hurricane season,” a month that historically brings with it the most intense storms.
“For those in the transportation industry who were curiously watching hurricane season as a potential catalyst for freight market recovery, hopes for salvation via FEMA loads are waning,” she said. “Carriers who use disaster relief as a chance to supplement revenue during the last months of the year should seek other opportunities as they arise instead of waiting for the perfect storm.”