U.S. freight volumes across all modes will see 2.8 percent growth in 2017 followed by a 3.4 percent average annual increase through 2023, according to forecasts from the American Trucking Association’s Freight Transportation Forecast 2017.
United States freight volumes are projected to grow 2.8 percent in 2017 and up to 3.4 percent annually through 2023, according to the American Trucking Association’s (ATA) Freight Transportation Forecast 2017 report.
An estimated 15.18 billion tons of freight will be moved by all modes this year, and that number will rise 36.6 percent to 20.73 billion tons by 2028, according to the ATA forecast.
“As the U.S. population grows and the economy increases with it, we will see continued gains in demand for freight transportation,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.
According to the report, less-than-truckload (LTL) volumes will increase 3.3 percent annually from 2017 to 2023, with private carrier volumes increasing 2.8 percent annually during the same period.
Rail’s share of total tonnage will slide from 11.4 percent in 2017 to 9.7 percent in 2023 and 8.9 percent in 2028, ATA said, although rail carload traffic will grow 0.6 percent annually.
Air cargo tonnage will tick up 2.2 percent in 2017, with revenues up 6.1 percent, according to the ATA forecast.
However, the ATA warned that capacity shortfalls are likely to develop over the forecast period.
“We are starting to see some selected tightness in freight handling capacity, enough to suggest that capacity expansion will be required if the modes are going to be able to handle anticipated growth,” the report said.
More specifically, “While overall truck volumes will continue to rise, and trucking will remain the dominant freight mode – its share of freight tonnage will dip to 67.2% by 2028, with pipelines picking up most of the additional market share, and, to a lesser extent, rail intermodal,” said Costello.
“As we look ahead at the rest of the 21st Century, the projections found in Freight Transportation Forecast are invaluable to decision makers in the board room and the hearing room alike,” said ATA President and CEO Chris Spear. “Having good, accurate data is critical to making sure businesses are making appropriate investments in their companies and that our government is making the proper investments in our nation’s infrastructure.”
ATA projects steady freight volume growth through 2023
