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Adam Josephson

Adam Josephson is a senior vertical expert at FreightWaves. He was most recently a paper & packaging analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets for the past 10 years, presented at numerous paper industry meetings/conferences. His insights were quoted in publications like The Wall Street Journal. His work focused on the drivers of box demand (including the impact or lack thereof from e-commerce growth, contrary to popular belief), accounting issues pertaining to his industry, and other topics. If you’d like to get in touch with Adam, please email him at ajosephson@freightwaves.com or adamjosephson@gmail.com.
Jul - 2023 -
26 July
Adam Josephson

From booze to fries, signs of consumer demand weakness multiplying

A number of consumer-facing companies have pointed to intensifying spending weakness during Q2 earnings season.

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24 July
Adam Josephson

US box shipments remain historically weak in Q2

The 3rd-largest North American containerboard and box producer, Packaging Corp. of America, reported an eye-opening 10% box shipment decline.

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13 July
Adam Josephson

CPG companies experiencing unusual demand weakness as Americans’ incomes deteriorate

General Mills, Conagra and other branded packaged food companies continue to experience substantial volume declines, but the explanations differ by company.

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03 July
Adam Josephson

Heavy use of supply chain financing tools comes with significant risks

Heavy usage of financing tools among S&P 500 companies is boosting free cash flow but comes with significant risks to investors and the economy.

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Jun - 2023 -
30 June
Adam Josephson

Consumer staples earnings reports bring yet more evidence of demand weakness

Ongoing retailer destocking/inventory reductions and the shift to cheaper private-label brands are posing problems for branded packaged food companies.

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13 June
Adam Josephson

Box demand likely remains under significant pressure as real wages continue falling

Goods demand has dried up, specifically purchases of big-ticket discretionary items such as furniture and appliances.

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08 June
Adam Josephson

Corporate disclosures highlight heavy use of supply chain financing

FreightWaves calculated about $80 billion of supply chain financing among S&P 500 companies as of Q1, with more companies yet to provide disclosures.

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May - 2023 -
26 May
Adam Josephson

Retailers’ commentary becoming ever more downbeat as Americans run out of money

The two largest home improvement retailers cut their full-year sales guidance in Q1, a rarity; many other retailers also pointed to intensifying pressure on Americans’ ability to spend money as the year has progressed.

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10 May
Adam Josephson

Another sign of profound box demand weakness appears

U.S. box demand, which has experienced historic declines in the past two quarters, remains unusually weak in Q2 from all indications.

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02 May
Adam Josephson

Packaging demand bubble has popped

Packaging industry volumes remain historically weak in Q1, with destocking a recurring theme; when will it end?

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Apr - 2023 -
27 April
Adam Josephson

Box demand slumps as Americans refrain from discretionary purchases

Companies expecting a near-term demand recovery might be well served to read Visa’s Q1 earnings call transcript.

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24 April
Adam Josephson

Box shipment trends their worst since depths of Great Financial Crisis

U.S. box shipments are declining at their fastest rate since the worst of the Great Financial Crisis, with trends having deteriorated as the first quarter progressed, according to the third-largest North American containerboard producer.

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20 April
Adam Josephson

Yet more signs of deterioration in European pulp and paper industry

A large European pulp and paper company issued a profit warning as “the whole packaging market is currently weakening.”

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14 April
Adam Josephson

Deteriorating global pulp demand yet another indication of economic weakness

A large European paperboard and pulp producer warns of deteriorating demand in another sign of intensifying global economic weakness.

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06 April
Adam Josephson

Costco’s March sales highlight consumers’ shift to essentials

Costco’s sales report for March is evidence that U.S. consumers are spending their money on essential items and not discretionary ones.

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05 April
Adam Josephson

Cardboard box demand to remain low in 2023

Corrugated box demand is tracking below 2022 levels – which was a poor year for the industry. Meanwhile, many companies’ costs remain elevated.

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Mar - 2023 -
17 March
Adam Josephson

Analysis reveals how trillions in pandemic aid led to freight volume explosion

One key trucking demand metric has been in decline for seven straight months, and more cuts in federal benefits could further challenge volumes. 

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