On last week’s The Stockout show, I interviewed Fred Hart, partner and creative director of Interact, a branding agency in Boulder, Colorado. Fred works with a wide range of CPG companies on packaging and branding that stands out in crowded fields of products. The show can be seen here.  For those without the 26 minutes […]

The truck market is correcting. If you haven’t read the article that FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller wrote last week titled, “Just 3 years after 2019 trucking bloodbath, another is on the way,” I recommend starting there. For those who prefer a video format and/or want more detail, Fuller discusses his thesis on the most recent […]

Supply chain improvement, leading to better on-shelf availability, drove positive variance relative to management’s prior guidance. Shares of General Mills rose 2.5% on Wednesday in a down market. The increase to the company’s full-year earnings guidance (earnings were previously expected to be 2% lower to 1% higher y/y and are now expected to be flat […]

Grocery prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in February. As miserable as the overall 7.9% inflation rate was for most consumers in February, grocery inflation outpaced it, with its highest rate of price growth in 40 years. The February year-over-year increase in grocery inflation exceeded the 7.9% year-over-year growth in January and grocery prices were also up […]

In a letter to associates, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said, “As a food and beverage company, now more than ever we must stay true to the humanitarian aspect of our business. That means we have a responsibility to continue to offer our other products in Russia, including daily essentials such as milk and other dairy […]

Will we see a depression in Russia, a recession in western Europe and slower positive economic growth in North America, or some other scenario? It’s not yet clear whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be impactful enough to drive a global recession, but the consensus is that the further rising prices of energy and agriculture as […]

Before getting into CPG news, I encourage readers of The Stockout to join us at The Future of Supply Chain event, which takes place May 9-10 at the Rogers Convention Centers in Northwest Arkansas. Keynote speakers include Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Jonathan Hoffman, former chief Pentagon spokesman. The CPG industry will be well represented […]

Numerous multinational CPG companies are suspending or limiting production in Ukraine in an effort to keep employees safe. The major CPG companies that have announced they are limiting or suspending production and/or distribution in Ukraine include Nestle, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris and Mondelez. The same is true for global agriculture companies that have operations in Ukraine, […]

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 135.7 points in January, 1.1 percent higher than December and the highest level in 11 years. Driving the latest increase were month-over-month increases in the FAO Vegetable Oils Price Index and the Dairy Price Index of 4.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Palm […]

Nestle’s corporate strategy the past several years has prepared it for the highly inflationary environment we now find ourselves in. The main thing that stood out to me in Nestle’s full-year 2021 results, which were reported Thursday, was the stability in the company’s margins, which was highly impressive considering the tremendous margin pressure that many […]

This is the best article I saw in recent days relevant to CPG companies — Just Food described how consumer behavior will likely change in response to sharp inflation in food prices. The good news for CPG companies is that history shows that consumers will cut back on eating out at restaurants (first trading down […]

Following disappointing earnings on Thursday afternoon, Clorox (NYSE: CLX) shares fell 14.3% on Friday, making it the day’s worst-performing stock on the S&P 500. One of the lowlights was the company’s gross margin, which declined 1,240 basis points year-over-year in its fiscal second quarter to 33% from 45.5% one year earlier. That contraction was primarily […]

Mondelez sees logistics costs rising worldwide, but not at the same pace as in the U.S. The Chicago-based snack maker cited a severe imbalance between supply and demand for truck capacity and container availability in the U.S. and U.K. Meanwhile, the company’s costs outside of logistics, such as ingredient and packaging costs, are showing more […]

What will Unilever look like in the coming years? Unilever stood out Monday because the shares rose 8.6% on news of activist involvement and were up throughout the day while the broader market sold off sharply before recovering by the end of the day. The activist, Trian Fund Management, has been involved with numerous CPG […]

This week’s CPG news items reflect a continuation of recent food/beverage trends.  More crossover between soft drink and alcoholic drinks: Monster Beverage is the latest soft drink company to get into adult beverages by acquiring CANarchy Craft Brewery Collective, an owner of craft breweries, in a deal worth $330 million. Other recent examples of category […]

Instead of discussing the current CPG news and freight data per my usual, for today’s newsletter I highlight the CPG industry trends I expect to see in 2022.  Trend No. 1: Consumer behavior will change in response to rising prices, at least among lower-income consumers. The topic of the hour is inflation, which hit a […]

Before getting into CPG news, here are two near-term events for your calendar:  On Friday, The Stockout show is focused on the railroad industry and features a true industry expert (not referring to myself). I will be interviewing Tony Hatch, an independent railroad consultant and longtime senior transportation analyst on Wall Street. He is fresh […]

J.M. Smucker Co.’s results highlight margin pressure even as CPG companies raise prices and continue to post strong sales. Overall, Smucker reported strong results as its earnings easily beat analysts’ expectations, mainly on better-than-expected sales in segments such as coffee, pet food and Uncrustables. The company’s results give a glimpse into the continued margin pressure […]

Before getting into what’s happening in CPG supply chains, here’s something for your calendar: I host the next quarterly The Stockout webinar on Dec. 6 at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s the link to register. Last quarter, there was a great turnout, and the discussion was enhanced by the many participants who asked thoughtful and pertinent […]

Before getting into what’s happening in CPG supply chains, here’s something for your calendar: I host the next quarterly The Stockout webinar on Dec. 6 at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s the link to register. Last quarter, there was a great turnout, and the discussion was enhanced by the many participants who asked thoughtful and pertinent […]

Oatly (Swedish oat milk company) shares continue to struggle. Oatly’s American depository receipts declined 21% Monday and closed at $9.36, down 45% from the $17 IPO price. Investors’ primary concern centered around a slowing revenue growth rate; the company now expects revenue this year to be “more than $635 million,” which is 8% below the […]

Beyond Meat sell-off further ignites debate about demand for plant-based protein. From my perspective, Beyond Meat’s earnings and the fallout have been the most interesting CPG-related news this week. The recent returns for shareholders have been ugly — down 20% in the past week and down 35% year-to-date. Since the company had already preannounced its […]

TreeHouse Foods, a major manufacturer of private-label food products, announced that its board is exploring strategic alternatives. Potential strategic actions include a possible sale of the company or the divestment of a significant portion of its less-profitable meal prep business in order to focus on its higher-growth snacking and beverages business. This announcement Monday came […]

Kellogg Co. manages to reaffirm earnings guidance despite both industrywide and company-specific challenges. I find it impressive that the company was able to retain its guidance for both operating profit and earnings despite the acceleration in inflation during the third quarter and the ongoing strike in its flagship North American cereal business. Although, some would […]

Vertical farming promises to be one of the most impactful trends to food in the coming years. In fact, it was listed as the No. 1 trend in Whole Foods’ list of top food trends in 2022. I am also excited about the potential for growth in vertical farming, and I made that the topic […]

It’s times like these that it’s more fun to write about transportation issues than to actually have to move freight (not that I’ve ever actually moved freight). On Wednesday, topics at the FreightWaves Intermodal Summit included port congestion, rail ramp congestion, the chassis shortage, the drayage capacity shortage, the international and domestic container shortage, and […]

Loaded domestic intermodal container volume is now down on 10 of the 11 densest domestic intermodal lanes that originate in the U.S.

With most CPG companies already having reported first-quarter earnings, the CPG-related news this week centered around descriptions of consumer strength from their retail partners. In addition, the largest CPG companies, such as Unilever, are making bigger pushes into sustainable packaging. Finally, Oatly shares soared in their debut on Thursday.  To sign up for The Stockout, […]

As the equity indexes declined on Tuesday, two freight indexes contained in SONAR were up sharply after incorporating data from the past week: the national dry van and reefer spot indexes. That prompts the question: What happened to the freight market in the past week? In today’s The Stockout newsletter, I discuss how that data […]

As the economy surges, inflation pressures are becoming more widespread. Everywhere you look, there are headline-grabbing reports of rising prices. Some areas where inflation is acute are in industrial commodities such as lumber and steel, while inflation in other areas directly impacts CPG companies such as agriculture, meat, packaging and freight costs. While those issues […]

Wall Street didn’t like Clorox’s earnings report late last week. There were analyst downgrades and shares are down from where they were a week ago and down 10% from their level three months ago. The company is in a tough spot with uncertainty over whether demand for its cleaning products will remain elevated as COVID […]

In past editions of The Stockout, I’ve discussed cost inflation trends, which I believe is the industry’s largest issue currently aside from pandemic-related structural changes in demand. In recent days, many of the large CPG companies provided additional detail on pending price increases to pass those costs on to consumers. While that’s not a surprise, […]

Tuesday morning there was big news out of the rail industry: Canadian National Railway (CN) made a stronger offer to acquire the Kansas City Southern (KCS) Railway than what Canadian Pacific (CP) and KCS agreed upon. Whether a deal closes, and between which railways, remains uncertain, but in this edition of The Stockout, I discuss […]

In today’s The Stockout, I discuss first-quarter earnings reports from Pepsi and L’Oreal. L’Oreal, in particular, has a lot of momentum of late with shares reaching all-time highs as investors seem to be intrigued by investing in cosmetics as a play on life returning to normal and the burgeoning Chinese middle class. Meanwhile, Pepsi’s results […]

Most public CPG companies are in their quiet periods ahead of earnings. But there were still significant developments with the CPG companies that are not (yet) public. There is a report that Impossible Foods plans to go public either through an IPO or SPAC sometime later this year and The Honest Co., which was founded […]

When we look back at the COVID era, we will remember stockouts of toilet paper, cleared-out grocery store shelves and the impossibility of getting the latest video game console because of the semiconductor shortage. Today, consumer goods are still serving as a reminder that COVID is not fully behind us. Just as there are still […]

In today’s edition of The Stockout CPG-focused newsletter, I discuss a company that has been dealing with exactly that — stockouts. McCormick & Co., the world’s largest spice company, reported earnings last week (for its first quarter ending Feb. 28) and provided an outlook that was favorable, boosted by continued elevated levels of at-home consumption. […]

Last week Starbucks expanded upon its previously stated goal to be a “resource-positive company,” with specific goals related to sourcing coffee beans, land use and production. What’s striking is how targeted the company’s greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction efforts are at the point of origin and the company’s willingness to share environmental best practices throughout the […]

Most CPG companies will report earnings next month, but with an off-cycle fiscal year ending May 31, General Mills reported its fiscal third quarter Wednesday morning for the December-February quarter. General Mills’ size and its off-cycle reporting make it a bellwether for next month’s earnings reports. As I’ve discussed in other editions of The Stockout, […]

Earlier this week in The Stockout CPG-focused newsletter, I discussed the impact that China’s efforts to replenish its hog population was having on corn and soybean exports as well as the related transportation challenges. Today, I dig into another pork-related issue, California’s Proposition 12, which could have a major impact on pork supply chains and […]

Cargill’s announcement last week that it is making a nearly half-billion dollar investment in soybeans caught my attention because it suggests that one of the world’s largest food producers believes that soybeans are poised for sustainable growth and the recent price appreciation and surge in production are not just the result of transient trends. It’s […]

Positive train control, also known as PTC, is a safety technology aimed at automatically stopping a freight or passenger train before a collision. This Ask Waves article describes what it is, its history and its future implications.

Earlier this week, in the last edition of The Stockout CPG-focused newsletter, I focused on reefer since the many CPG companies that require temperature controls are facing an even tighter freight market than those that do not. Today, I am shifting gears to discuss shipping dry goods and, specifically, intermodal insights from the latest datasets […]

Just as Pat Riley trademarked the term “three-peat,” I’m considering trademarking “coin flip compliance.” That’s the state of the reefer market today with reefer carriers rejecting 50.3% of tendered loads, up from 40% in early February and up from 10% at this time last year. So, as concerning as tight transportation markets are for shippers […]

This article was originally published in The Stockout newsletter on February 3, 2021. To sign up for The Stockout newsletter, click here. We recommend that CPG companies, and others that ship refrigerated goods, pay close attention to Marten Transportation’s results each quarter. Marten, which reported its fourth quarter last week, is listed seventh on the […]

One financial metric in the CPG world that stands out to me is AB InBev’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio: 4.8x. The company has been highly leveraged since its acquisition of SABMiller in 2016 when its debt topped $100 billion (net debt was $82.7 billion at the end of 2020) and the pandemic hurt the company’s profitability […]

Plant-based meat alternatives are to the food industry what electric vehicles are to the transportation industry — a niche with a lot of startups today but maybe not so niche in the future, especially as further quality advancements are made. In today’s edition of The Stockout, a CPG-focused newsletter, I discuss recent developments with Beyond […]

Container shipping rates from China to the U.S. west coast and international intermodal volume out of the L.A. port complex are both at or below last year’s seasonally-weak Chinese New Year Period. Extended factory shutdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus may inhibit a March or April rebound.

FreightWaves Market Expert Mike Baudendistel writes about the issues impacting rail intermodal in 2020, and the ongoing battle between the railroads and the trucking industry.

Market Expert Mike Baudendistel looks at the prospects for the truck original equipment manufacturers in 2020.

Why are Class 8 orders a deeply cyclical, lagging indicator of truck demand?

Precision Scheduled Railroading, or PSR, is the operational method of running a railroad for maximum asset utilization by which freight movements are scheduled and managed on the individual carload (rather than entire train level). That contributes to efficiency improvements by, for instance, using more direct point-to-point routing, bypassing classification terminals, and having the flexibility to use long mixed-commodity trains.

Market Expert Michael Baudendistel writes about rail intermodal volume is lower for the long-term, or can it be more competitive with trucking.

Market expert Michael Baudendistel writes about whether there is a rail recession, or are railroads paring operations and employees to fatten their bottom lines.