The lumber markets have not cooled off since we last covered them in March: futures prices are still breaking records because of a Canadian rail capacity crunch, and flatbed rates in the Southeast are climbing right along with them.
Large food shippers are citing rapidly inflating freight costs as headwinds to their earnings, including Smuckers, Kraft Heinz, Tyson, Hershey, and General Mills. We round up the impacts to their businesses here, based on earnings call transcripts.
Navistar has rolled out a series of new products in the last few years and the strong overall economy is helping the once-beleaguered truck maker rebound with another strong performance in its second-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street estimates.
With transport stocks surging, some market watchers are hopeful that the current expansion period will continue despite downturns in the broader market earlier this year.
The job openings rate in the overall economy hovered at record highs at the start of the 2nd quarter, as companies across industries continue to struggle to find workers. Results from the transportation sector show an industry facing a significant challenge, and wages will likely face additional pressure to rise in upcoming months.
U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., says he and others are “crafting” legislation requiring congressional authority over levying tariffs in response to President Donald Trump’s imposition of stiff steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
Manufacturing activity continues to expand in the 2nd quarter, and challenges with finding employees and tight freight capacity have made it difficult for producers in the economy to keep up with strong demand.
Candid conversations with leaders in the logistics/truck freight brokerage industry.
Much of the focus is on its financials rather than any significant shift in operations.
A monthly survey of all the important economic developments from the past month, and a look at some of the key trends to watch throughout the month of June.
Job growth improved considerably in May as the unemployment rate matched a near-50 year low. Trucking hires also made significant strides during the month, erasing the large decline in trucking employment from last month.
Oil, which helped drive a rally for stocks Wednesday, began pulling back ahead of U.S. supply data.
Results from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggest that manufacturers have shrugged off tariff concerns and are enjoying stronger growth in the 2nd quarter. Labor shortages remain an issue however, broadening beyond the trucking industry.
The US trade deficit in goods narrowed for the second consecutive month, but a decline in both exports and imports means less transportation to and from ports
The U.S. government is looking to levy 25% added tariffs on auto exports, which could set off a spate of trade wars with countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea.
New IMO regulations asking for the shipping industry to cap the sulfur content in its fuel to 0.5% would have far reaching consequences on crude oil refining and potentially send oil prices to $90 per barrel.
A panel of financial experts were mixed when asked whether the industry would see higher spot rates one year from now, but continued capacity issues was not in debate.
China and the United States issued a joint-statement regarding trade consultations and a desire to support bilateral trade between the countries.
E-commerce sales shrugged off a weak quarter for retail overall, and the resilience of online shopping should continue to drive innovation in transportation and freight markets as businesses look to take advantage.
The Brent-WTI spread has widened considerably to $8.25, a bullish signal for demand for American oil exports and truckload miles.
Maersk grew its revenues by acquiring Hamburg Süd and selling off Maersk Oil, but reported negative earnings on increased fuel prices and low spot rates.
Output from the nation’s industrial sector climbed for the third consecutive month, as broad gains across industries helped compensate for a lull in auto production. This serves as yet another sign that freight demand will remain solid in the 2nd quarter.
High capacity, steady rise in oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar and a dull spot market had sunken margins of shipping majors in Q1 2018.
Retail activity improved again in April, helping to reinforce the idea of stronger consumer spending in the 2nd quarter. This should help sustain freight demand as retailers look for inventory replenishment and last mile residential delivery services
It will literally take an act of Congress to right the sinking USPS ship. Even heavy attrition and solid growth in packages and shipping can’t stop the losses.
On Tuesday, German logistics and postal provider DHL posted disappointing earnings for the 1st quarter of 2018, with headwinds from currency and the sale of one of its supply chain subsidiaries leading to a decline in revenue to 14.75 billion euros
The intensifying shortage of drivers is the result of several key issues relating to supply, demand, and new regulations—and is expected to have a significant impact on oil supply.
Data on producer prices shows that overall inflation pressure cooled in the economy last month, as big declines in food prices offset gain in other areas of the economy. Trucking prices remained essentially unchanged for the second consecutive month, but remain elevated relative to this point last year.
Job openings pushed to a fresh record high at the end of the 1st quarter, indicating that labor market conditions remain healthy in the overall economy. The openings rate in the transportation sector continues to outpace the rest of the economy, and the pace of hiring provides further evidence that the industry is struggling to find workers.
The collapse of Venezuelan oil production and fears of renewed sanctions on Iran are driving oil prices to 2014 levels, but what does that mean for the American economy and the trucking sector?
Brokers continue to see more business and higher revenue, according to the latest data compiled by DAT.
he pace of hiring improved slightly in April as the unemployment rate fell below 4% for the first time since the end of 2000. Trucking employment, however, saw no such gains as jobs in the industry declined for the first time in eight months.
ts best performance in year-over-year increases in revenue per hundredweight (excluding fuel surcharge) in years was not enough to turn a first quarter profit for YRC Worldwide.
Manufacturing growth is likely to remain solid in the 2nd quarter, as orders for new production remained healthy through March. This should help keep freight demand strong, even if things have moderated from the torrid pace seen in previous months.
Data from the Institute of Supply Management shows that manufacturing activity lost some momentum in April, as the current capacity crunch and recent tariffs have impacted production flows
Every new regulatory regime—whether it’s deregulation, the introduction of hours of service, or the ELD mandate—prompts a fresh wave of creative destruction. Some business models thrive, while others go extinct.
The industrial real estate prices have been up for a long time and if market trends are to be believed, they could be climbing for the next few years.
Economic conditions as they relate to freight generally improved during the month. With a few notable exceptions, most of the data released in April (largely covering March activity) either met or exceeded expectations and signal that freight demand will likely stay strong going forward.
When investing in cyclical companies, such a transports, it is important to first understand what part of the economic cycle we are in.
Tax changes have made leasing an even more inviting proposition for fleets, says the COO of Fleet Advantage.
USA Truck posts a strong first quarter earnings continuing its torrid turnaround pace.
Economic growth slowed down in the 1st quarter, as payback from post-hurricane surges and poor weather derailed activity in some sectors of the economy.
NS had weak operating metrics in the first quarter, but strong performance. Hub sees a strong pricing environment for the rails.
Even with a higher cost burden, it still managed an improvement in its operating ratio.
The goods trade deficit narrowed for the first time in seven months, but total trade going in and out of the US actually declined.
Echol Global Logistics a 3PL based in Chicago busts through earnings estimates in the first quarter. A combination of market conditions and productivity improvements paved the way.
The year 2018 is shaping up as one not seen in trucking in more than a decade, explained Chris Lofgren, CEO of Schneider National, on the company’s earnings call on Thursday morning.
Durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March, driven by a 2nd consecutive surge in commercial aircraft orders. Core orders remained essentially unchanged during the month in a sign that freight demand will continue to normalize.
The company is moving fast in an effort to stay on top of trends, to see industry changes as opportunities, and to continue to act offensively.
Knight-Swift’s revenues stabilized despite fewer trucks and shorter length of haul, and the two brands managed to increase their efficiency and improve operating ratios.
Covenant Transportation Group saw revenue and earnings increase and predicted that the second quarter presents an even bigger opportunity for the carrier.
Prices for used vehicles are expected by the company to stay flat for the remainder of the year.
Truck tonnage fell for the second consecutive month despite generally solid economic conditions. Responses from survey data suggests that the freight is out there, but capacity is preventing tonnage growth
Sales of single-family homes improved for the 2nd consecutive month in a sign that housing activity is beginning to accelerate at the start of spring. This, in turn, should boost freight demand for building materials, furniture, and appliances as households move in and settle.
Trucking employment has grown a healthy 32% since 2012, but very small and small fleets are absorbing the new drivers, leaving large carriers struggling to seat their trucks.
Many fortunes have been made doing exactly the opposite.
Volatility returns to commodity markets, with oil, aluminum, and nickel posting huge price increases. How long will these price shocks last, and how will they affect the economy?
Responses from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on regional economic conditions show that recent tariffs and capacity issues in freight are starting to pressure businesses.
China-U.S. ocean freight rates have been falling continuously for the record 32nd week, in the wake of the Chinese New Year and a continous surge in capacity.
Positive news from both manufacturing and construction sectors, as gain in each help drive up freight demand in the economy
The company takes in less revenue, makes more profits and is off a federal watch list.
Daseke has purchased Aveda Transportation and Energy Services, one of North America’s largest oil rig movers. This acquisition increases Daseke’s exposure to the oil and gas industries, which have a bullish outlook for 2018 and beyond.
Retail sales rebounded in March after declining in each of the previous three months. This rebound is a return to normal for the retail sector after some volatility in spending following the hurricane season.
The first major transportation provider out of the box with first-quarter earnings has posted a better-than-expected result in revenues with J.B. Hunt Transport Services topped revenue estimates for the quarter.
Job growth has improved since the start of the year in the trucking industry. While this is strong step in address the driver shortage, the industry will soon find itself having to compete long-term with other industries desperately searching for skilled labor.
Flatbed freight remains red-hot with 111 loads for every truck, but what is causing the surge in demand?
We explain how the yield curve works, how it affects the cost of debt, and what that means for trucking.
Data from the Producers Price Index showed that prices for trucking services remain high, and a spillover in demand may be causing a surge in intermodal rates.
Stifel returns to trucking with an array of notes on individual carriers and a comprehensive industry update. Analysts expect 12% increase in truckload rates y/y, spillover into LTL and intermodal, and no relief in sight for the driver shortage.
Job growth fell well short of expectations in March, but trucking hires continued to accelerate as the industry tries to address the current capacity crunch.
Turndowns inbound and outbound of Charleston are gradually rising in tandem, indicating a healthy market. Spot rate movements will depend on where capacity is positioned once port traffic ramps up.
After strong fourth-quarter earnings results, weather and other external forces are expected to weigh on earnings reports in the first quarter, resulting in a mixed bag for public companies.
Trade war fears have caused increased volatility in stock markets over the past month. However, worries over a deep recession caused by protectionism appear overblown for now. The challenge for transportation companies will be less about a collapse in activity and more about adjusting to the new reality.
Once the Mason Mega Rail terminal is complete, the Port of Savannah will have a state-of-the-art facility, unique to the U.S. East Coast.
Truck sales, indices, stock price projections: all are looking bullish
Soybean exports to China have been levied 25% additional tariffs as China hits back with tariffs on U.S. exports worth $50 billion annually.
The number is 175,000 out several years, against a base of a half-million.
Construction spending in the economy remains essentially unchanged since the start of the year, as the sector continues to disappoint after a solid 4th quarter. This has implications for flatbed carriers and dry vans, as weakness in construction and home building affects freight demand.
China has increased tariffs by up to 25% on 128 U.S. products, in retaliation for the tariffs added by the U.S. last week. The Chinese tariffs target farm products, with the severely hit being pork exporters.
New management addresses analysts with a pile of back earnings.
BNSF hauls more coal than any other railroad, but the future of American coal production and consumption is an open question. Is BNSF heavily exposed to downside risk or will it be the last coal carrier standing?
Data from the ISM index showed that manufacturing activity pulled back slightly in March, and responses from the survey highlight the impact that trucking shortages and tariffs are having on performance.
Wages continue to rise for America’s truckers as the trucking industry contends with driver shortages coupled with an increased demand for shipping services.
A monthly synopsis of events and results in the macroeconomy from the past month and a discussion of implications for freight markets going forward. Results released in March were generally more favorable than the previous month and suggests that freight demand should remain strong going forward.
DHL’s new Global Trade Barometer showed improvement in March, indicating that global trade volumes are likely to gain momentum in the near future
The number of oil rigs and the demand for flatbed trucking are rising in tandem, as WTI prices go up and the Brent-WTI spread widens.
Profit Tools has developed an Optimization Platform which uses artificial intelligence (AI) and intermodal data points to deliver breakthrough performance and visibility.
The trade deficit in goods widened for the sixth consecutive month in February. Total goods trade volume was up however, which bodes well for transportation and freight markets
FreightWaves adds stock tickers for publicly traded stocks in the freight space
What happens with increased turndowns in this context is that carriers don’t want to go inbound into a place—in this case, Philadelphia—as they assess the cost of outbound.
Regional manufacturing data from the Dallas and Richmond Fed suggests that manufacturing activity has cooled in March as the impact of tariffs has affected output
The threat of retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products could hurt wheat exports, which are already struggling to compete on the international market. Railroad grains volumes in 2018 YTD are down, in many cases by double digits.
This week we are using the Cass Information Systems data to review what is happening in the economy overall.
General Mills is citing higher freight costs as a reason for lower than expected earning. This is not an uncommon issue in today’s marketplace. There could be solutions coming in the future.
Factory orders for durable goods bounced back after a large decline in the previous month. Gains during the month were broad based in a sign that freight demand should be solid in upcoming months
New 12 month price targets for FedEx stock range from $260-$310, representing 20% of the company’s value and reflecting uncertainty about how the parcel carrier will improve margins and find synergies with TNT.
The US appears set to impose significant tariffs on China, raising the threat that the economy may find itself in a full-fledged trade war
The ATA’s truck tonnage index fell 2.6% in February, and evidence from rail traffic data suggests that shippers are shifting modes for some freight
Container traffic into the Port of Seattle is down 22.6% YTD, starving the city of freight. Trucking spot rates have cratered, and turndowns have dropped 75% since their peak in October as carriers are forced to accept lower prices.
Zurich-based tech company Nexiot and German firm VTG Aktiengesellshaft hope to improve the way VTG’s 80,000 railcars assets are tracked by applying blockchain technology.
