Chart of the Week

Could intermodal be capping the truckload market’s potential breakout?

Spot and tender rejection rates point to a strong tightening in the national truckload market. Is this the end of the freight market recession?

Truckload contract rates are starting to move higher in an environment where they have every reason to continue to fall.

Hurricane Milton was the third large disruptor to transportation markets in three weeks. What happens next?

Many of the signs of the end to the freight recession have faded, at least in the short run. A strike and the aftermath of a major hurricane are looming disruptors but probably not enough to sustainably shift the market. But the data still points to the end of this historically loose environment.

Intermodal providers are taking share with grace, but is it counterproductive to pricing gains?

The truckload market appears to be increasingly stable through a period when it normally isn’t. While the immediate future appears uneventful, the holiday shipping season is anything but certain.

Empty containers could be a strong transportation demand signal for September, but the market appears ready to handle it, for now.

The lack of volatility in produce-hauling rates out of California this summer supports the idea that the refrigerated market has more than seasonal pressure pushing rates higher.

Inventory pull-forward has been the driving theory behind container import growth, but data suggests that may not be as true as people think. What are the implications to domestic transportation markets?

Why are truckload spot and contract rates moving in opposite directions, and what does that mean for the future?

What should we make of an extraordinary example of history repeating itself?

The international shipping market has once again destabilized, with no real signs of relief.

The Southeast’s capacity issues do not appear to be originating from increasing demand, at least not from the region itself.

Maritime import demand for the U.S. is as strong as it has ever been, second only to the pandemic boom. What does this mean for the upcoming peak season, and how does it affect domestic transportation?

The freight market has not turned strongly yet, but some historical patterns may help map when it will.

The wide range of spot and contract rates being offered may help trigger a strong market shift later in the year.

Mother’s Day tightness has returned to the Florida refrigerated freight markets, but this year is different.

Demand pattern shifts are invisible in an oversupplied freight market, which may lead to problems once supply-and-demand conditions become more balanced.

The refrigerated truckload market has fallen back in alignment with the broader market this spring, but that doesn’t mean it will stay there.

Operating cost inflation is largely hidden, but fuel costs help explain why the domestic truckload market is headed for a turn.

Heavy truck orders are not an indicator of for-hire truckload market health and haven’t been since the pandemic ended.

Whether it is nearshoring, tariff bypasses or something else entirely, the Southern border is becoming increasingly important for domestic transportation.

Pricing trends and rejection rates are signaling a market shift is approaching. What should market participants do?

Inventory and procurement teams have earned their salaries over the past five years. Are they entering an extended period of stability, or is this only a rare moment of reprieve.

Transportation providers should watch both coasts for increasing spring activity in March.

The current level of deterioration is historically fast, meaning the truckload market has the increasing potential to flip to a much tighter environment without much notice.

Spot rates were 22 cents higher from July 2020 to February of 2022 — the pandemic era.

Lagging effects of the pandemic are still making evaluating the economy a challenge.

The domestic truckload market gets rattled by a series of winter weather systems.

Flatbed and refrigerated truckload data suggests their markets may have floored for these two trailer types.

Shippers are reverting to pre-pandemic shipping patterns, which may exacerbate the next freight market shift.

The Logistics Managers’ Index has done a great job of explaining freight market capacity shifts over the past several years. The last few months are painting a picture of a market that is racing toward a correction.

After a relatively easy year for shipping and rightsizing inventories, shippers may have set up a holiday season in which expedited shipments become more prevalent.

The overall freight transportation market may be soft but the natural imbalance in the flow of freight is still able to create pockets of tightness.

The return of intermodal shipping could accelerate truckload capacity’s exodus.

It may not seem or read like it, but the trucking market is slowly tightening. The question is how much time till it is noticeable?

Spot and contract rates have stabilized with an unnaturally large gap between them. Is this sustainable or just a pause before the fall?

Sharply increasing fuel costs may exacerbate the carrier exodus this winter.

FreightWaves latest SONAR data addition suggests a wave of truckload capacity exits is coming this winter.

National truckload tender rejections topped 4% for the first time since the holiday season last year. Is this a sign that the trucking market is turning the corner?

As companies are shifting their sourcing and logistics networks, it is changing the way transportation providers will have to manage their own businesses.

Transportation providers are going to have to maintain an aggressive posture when competing for business during the upcoming bid season.

An unseasonable upward trend in truckload tender volumes is giving domestic transportation providers the potential inflection point they have waiting for.

The less-than-truckload sector has been disrupted by a very public dispute between Yellow and the Teamsters. Rates have already seemingly responded and may continue to see support.

There are some positive signs that the freight market has cleared most of the post-pandemic rubble, but full recovery is still a ways off.

If the spread between contract and spot rates narrows, capacity will become increasingly inconsistent in the second half of the year.

Underlying shifts in domestic shipping are showing up in the spot market.

There has definitely been a sustainable shift in how freight is distributed domestically.

The jury is still out on whether truckload demand has hit the floor.

Companies are still trying to get their margins back to pre-pandemic levels with price increases on finished goods. This will continue to put freight demand at risk in the second half of the year.

Flatbed capacity tends to be as erratic as its demand, making it harder to secure in general.

After over a year of declining volumes and rates, trucking spot rates have leveled and demand has just witnessed an unseasonable jump.

The pandemic may have exposed long-term weakness to the railroads’ intermodal growth plans.

Southern California markets were flush with transportation activity during the pandemic. That has eroded and then some. This has not only left transportation networks exposed operationally but also created pricing gaps.

What do historically low rejection rates mean for the truckload industry?

Perhaps the biggest question of 2023 for domestic trucking is when will the surplus of capacity fade to a point that prices stop falling. One data point provides deeper insight than simply a count of drivers or tractors.

Lunar New Year normally brings a slow shipping period for imports, but the lead-in period was also lackluster. With many companies calling for a return to seasonal patterns later in the year, just how close are we to that being a reality?

Many people get hung up on trying to figure out how much capacity is readily available in trucking when they should be more focused on monitoring demand trends.

Are supply chains already manifesting significant changes in domestic transportation patterns?

What conclusions can we draw from the relationship between imports and trucking?

Truckload carriers nearly auto-accepted load requests during the holidays. While this may look like a blessing to shippers, the implications are not great.

Truckload carriers are providing the best contract compliance since COVID started during a traditionally chaotic time. What does this mean for 2023?

Normally one of the softest regions for truckload activity in the U.S., the Pacific Northwest has become the tightest in the nation.

Fuel costs are a huge cost component of operating a trucking business. Small operators are at a significant disadvantage in the current market thanks not only to declining demand but fuel price volatility.

Transportation demand continues to erode heading into the slowest months of the year. Could this be the bottom?

The automotive industry has been going strong while other sectors of the economy are slowing. What are some of the reasons for this and how long will it last?

FreightWaves new spot rate forecast supports a slow start to trucking’s peak season.

Truckload contract rates have slowed their descent after a quick drop in August. What should we make of this as demand continues to ease?

The ghost of Paul Volcker is stalking truckload carriers as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell looks to his mentor’s 40-year-old strategy to quell inflation. The lagging impacts from the recent interest rate hikes will inevitably erode demand several months into the future.

Outbound truckload tender volumes spiked this week out of Southern California, while intermodal volumes dipped due to a brief embargo. Could this be a result of shippers preparing for a potential strike?

Shippers may have had a little more success with contracted carriers in May, but it came at a high cost.

Many carriers expanded their fleets after the 2018 freight boom and were rewarded with an extremely challenging oversupplied market in 2019. The current pattern looks eerily similar to early 2018, but are they comparable?

Containers have been in short supply, exacerbated by gross trade imbalances between the U.S. and China. The surging flow of empties moving back to the West Coast implies the ships won’t be slowing anytime soon.

One of the results of the 2017-18 freight market boom was an increase in the cost of operating that held over into a slower 2019 when capacity became abundant. Costs are on the rise once again as carriers struggle to find drivers to capture market share.

Imports have fueled the domestic freight economy over the past year. That growth continues out of the traditional peak season with shippers booking maritime capacity in April. Could this translate to a record summer for trucking?

The relationship between personal consumption and trucking demand has strengthened even further as companies struggle to maintain inventory. This suggests a very active spring and summer for transportation providers.

Transportation rates continue to climb while service is at an all-time low. Shippers will have to be aggressive in devising new strategies to keep costs under control.

Import volumes are growing rapidly into secondary ports as shippers scramble to build inventory. What are some of the short- and long-term implications to domestic transportation providers?

Intermodal shipping is dominated by the largest shippers in the U.S. and operates on a more static network, which gains higher cost efficiency than trucking over longer-mileage runs.

Reefer capacity has tightened to all-time levels, pushing spot rates for produce moves to seasonal peaks ahead of schedule.

The underlying fundamentals of the market are showing signs of moving slowly back toward a more stable scenario and spot rates may be unable to paint the full picture.

The latest round of winter weather hit transportation hard. How does this compare to other events?

The import boom appears far from over, and it will have implications long after this wave of unprecedented orders subsides.

Companies are paying significantly more for transportation than they were a year ago with many contracts yet to be implemented.

Although many questions remain for trucking in 2021, flatbed appears to be poised for a much stronger year.

Freight volumes have exploded out of southern California over the past two years. Is this pattern sustainable?

Consumer spending on goods drove the majority of the freight boom in 2020. Will this trend last in 2021?

Class 8 truck orders are surging signaling carriers are once again willing to invest in their fleets. Does this mean another overcorrection of capacity is in store?

Imports continue to pile up as shippers and carriers take time for the holidays. They may come back to a mess.

Transportation providers may spend January unclogging supply chains as warehouse capacity has become a precious commodity thanks to the continued influx of imports.

Spot rates continued to increase after the holiday period ended even as capacity returned to the market according to the Outbound Tender Reject Index.

Cold chain distribution shifts following the pandemic along with a much smaller supply of available base capacity has made the reefer carrier a much more valuable commodity this year.

Capacity is historically tight in trucking, pushing spot rates and profit margins higher. How much of this momentum will carriers be able to maintain?

Temperature-controlled equipment rates are already breaking records, could the vaccine distribution push them higher?

Trucking and rail volumes remain elevated while the imports fade. Is this is beginning of the end of the 2020 freight boom?

Record trucking volumes along with shrinking refinery production could make fuel prices an overlooked threat to carrier margins and shipping costs into 2021.

Import volumes continue to fuel the surface transportation boom. Will it last into 2021?

Reefer carrier revenues are expanding rapidly as capacity tightens faster for the temperature-controlled segment of trucking.

Carriers are investing in new trailers over tractors during the most recent freight boom. What does this mean for capacity in the future?