Chart of the Week

Could intermodal be capping the truckload market’s potential breakout?

Spot and tender rejection rates point to a strong tightening in the national truckload market. Is this the end of the freight market recession?

Truckload contract rates are starting to move higher in an environment where they have every reason to continue to fall.

Hurricane Milton was the third large disruptor to transportation markets in three weeks. What happens next?

Many of the signs of the end to the freight recession have faded, at least in the short run. A strike and the aftermath of a major hurricane are looming disruptors but probably not enough to sustainably shift the market. But the data still points to the end of this historically loose environment.

Intermodal providers are taking share with grace, but is it counterproductive to pricing gains?

The truckload market appears to be increasingly stable through a period when it normally isn’t. While the immediate future appears uneventful, the holiday shipping season is anything but certain.

Empty containers could be a strong transportation demand signal for September, but the market appears ready to handle it, for now.

The lack of volatility in produce-hauling rates out of California this summer supports the idea that the refrigerated market has more than seasonal pressure pushing rates higher.

Inventory pull-forward has been the driving theory behind container import growth, but data suggests that may not be as true as people think. What are the implications to domestic transportation markets?

Why are truckload spot and contract rates moving in opposite directions, and what does that mean for the future?

What should we make of an extraordinary example of history repeating itself?

The international shipping market has once again destabilized, with no real signs of relief.

The Southeast’s capacity issues do not appear to be originating from increasing demand, at least not from the region itself.

Maritime import demand for the U.S. is as strong as it has ever been, second only to the pandemic boom. What does this mean for the upcoming peak season, and how does it affect domestic transportation?

The freight market has not turned strongly yet, but some historical patterns may help map when it will.

The wide range of spot and contract rates being offered may help trigger a strong market shift later in the year.

Mother’s Day tightness has returned to the Florida refrigerated freight markets, but this year is different.

Demand pattern shifts are invisible in an oversupplied freight market, which may lead to problems once supply-and-demand conditions become more balanced.

The refrigerated truckload market has fallen back in alignment with the broader market this spring, but that doesn’t mean it will stay there.

Operating cost inflation is largely hidden, but fuel costs help explain why the domestic truckload market is headed for a turn.

Heavy truck orders are not an indicator of for-hire truckload market health and haven’t been since the pandemic ended.

Whether it is nearshoring, tariff bypasses or something else entirely, the Southern border is becoming increasingly important for domestic transportation.

Pricing trends and rejection rates are signaling a market shift is approaching. What should market participants do?

Inventory and procurement teams have earned their salaries over the past five years. Are they entering an extended period of stability, or is this only a rare moment of reprieve.

Transportation providers should watch both coasts for increasing spring activity in March.

The current level of deterioration is historically fast, meaning the truckload market has the increasing potential to flip to a much tighter environment without much notice.

Spot rates were 22 cents higher from July 2020 to February of 2022 — the pandemic era.

Lagging effects of the pandemic are still making evaluating the economy a challenge.

The domestic truckload market gets rattled by a series of winter weather systems.

Flatbed and refrigerated truckload data suggests their markets may have floored for these two trailer types.

The data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.

Shippers are bucking history and giving carriers more time to pick up their freight in a relatively soft market. What could be causing this and will it stick?

Shippers are reverting to pre-pandemic shipping patterns, which may exacerbate the next freight market shift.

The Logistics Managers’ Index has done a great job of explaining freight market capacity shifts over the past several years. The last few months are painting a picture of a market that is racing toward a correction.

After a relatively easy year for shipping and rightsizing inventories, shippers may have set up a holiday season in which expedited shipments become more prevalent.

The overall freight transportation market may be soft but the natural imbalance in the flow of freight is still able to create pockets of tightness.

The return of intermodal shipping could accelerate truckload capacity’s exodus.

It may not seem or read like it, but the trucking market is slowly tightening. The question is how much time till it is noticeable?

Spot and contract rates have stabilized with an unnaturally large gap between them. Is this sustainable or just a pause before the fall?

Sharply increasing fuel costs may exacerbate the carrier exodus this winter.

Removing future threats to demand, the refrigerated truckload sector supports the thesis that the truckload market has hit a floor.

FreightWaves latest SONAR data addition suggests a wave of truckload capacity exits is coming this winter.

National truckload tender rejections topped 4% for the first time since the holiday season last year. Is this a sign that the trucking market is turning the corner?

As companies are shifting their sourcing and logistics networks, it is changing the way transportation providers will have to manage their own businesses.

Transportation providers are going to have to maintain an aggressive posture when competing for business during the upcoming bid season.

An unseasonable upward trend in truckload tender volumes is giving domestic transportation providers the potential inflection point they have waiting for.

The less-than-truckload sector has been disrupted by a very public dispute between Yellow and the Teamsters. Rates have already seemingly responded and may continue to see support.

In a market where capacity is abundant, it is difficult to identify underlying shifts in demand.

There are some positive signs that the freight market has cleared most of the post-pandemic rubble, but full recovery is still a ways off.

If the spread between contract and spot rates narrows, capacity will become increasingly inconsistent in the second half of the year.

Underlying shifts in domestic shipping are showing up in the spot market.

The jury is still out on whether truckload demand has hit the floor.

Companies are still trying to get their margins back to pre-pandemic levels with price increases on finished goods. This will continue to put freight demand at risk in the second half of the year.

Flatbed capacity tends to be as erratic as its demand, making it harder to secure in general.

After over a year of declining volumes and rates, trucking spot rates have leveled and demand has just witnessed an unseasonable jump.

The pandemic may have exposed long-term weakness to the railroads’ intermodal growth plans.

Southern California markets were flush with transportation activity during the pandemic. That has eroded and then some. This has not only left transportation networks exposed operationally but also created pricing gaps.

What do historically low rejection rates mean for the truckload industry?

Upstream and historic values are predicting another strong deterioration in truckload spot rates in April. How seriously should we take this?

Perhaps the biggest question of 2023 for domestic trucking is when will the surplus of capacity fade to a point that prices stop falling. One data point provides deeper insight than simply a count of drivers or tractors.

Lunar New Year normally brings a slow shipping period for imports, but the lead-in period was also lackluster. With many companies calling for a return to seasonal patterns later in the year, just how close are we to that being a reality?

Many people get hung up on trying to figure out how much capacity is readily available in trucking when they should be more focused on monitoring demand trends.

Are supply chains already manifesting significant changes in domestic transportation patterns?

Inventory growth in December is not a great sign for carriers who are expecting the market to bottom this winter.

What conclusions can we draw from the relationship between imports and trucking?

Truckload carriers nearly auto-accepted load requests during the holidays. While this may look like a blessing to shippers, the implications are not great.

Truckload carriers are providing the best contract compliance since COVID started during a traditionally chaotic time. What does this mean for 2023?

Normally one of the softest regions for truckload activity in the U.S., the Pacific Northwest has become the tightest in the nation.

Fuel costs are a huge cost component of operating a trucking business. Small operators are at a significant disadvantage in the current market thanks not only to declining demand but fuel price volatility.

Transportation demand continues to erode heading into the slowest months of the year. Could this be the bottom?

The automotive industry has been going strong while other sectors of the economy are slowing. What are some of the reasons for this and how long will it last?

FreightWaves new spot rate forecast supports a slow start to trucking’s peak season.

Declining contract volumes may bring large carriers into the spot market, forcing spot rates into negative margin territory if they are not already there.

The truckload market is already experiencing a rapid deterioration in pricing. How long until the LTL market recognizes this inevitability?

Carriers and brokers tend to have the weather on a TV somewhere in their facilities throughout hurricane season because of the dramatic impacts storms can have on their operations and bottom lines. Ian hit at a time when trucking will not be as reactive to this devastating storm.

The ghost of Paul Volcker is stalking truckload carriers as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell looks to his mentor’s 40-year-old strategy to quell inflation. The lagging impacts from the recent interest rate hikes will inevitably erode demand several months into the future.

Carriers gobble up contracted freight, leaving the spot market barren for the holiday week. While not overtly obvious, there is still some semblance of hope for a decent peak season for carriers.

Importers have been shifting to the East Coast since 2021, but the full realization of this has peaked over the summer. The shifting import pattern has strong downstream effects for surface transportation providers.

Demand side indicators have been falling since 2021, but inflation continues to be the primary concern for the economy. The problem is there is little the Federal Reserve can be expected to be able to do, thanks to the cause of inflation shifting to the supply side.

The spread between spot and contract truckload rates is unsustainable. The question is just how far and fast will they fall?

Truckload spot rates have eroded dramatically since the start of the year while the bulk of the contracted market remained unscathed. That may be changing.

Knowing what the customer wants and when was once a relatively easy thing to predict. COVID has changed all that.

The recent AB5 ruling will make it difficult for regional operators to handle the ongoing short-haul and drayage demand in California.

Capacity normally tightens in the week leading up to the Fourth of July. The lack of upward movement from spot and rejection rates this past week suggests the market is either propped up by the holiday or seasonal patterns have not returned.

Contract rates have grown at their fastest pace in history over the pandemic era. The contract to spot rate spread fluctuation is an argument for smarter and more efficient growth strategies for carriers.

Import volumes have not realized the dip in shipping orders yet. What does this mean?

Inventory growth has forced companies to change their ordering strategy to a more flexible model.

The contracted freight market is in great condition at the moment, but the short-term indicators raise questions about its sustainability.

The truckload spot market has fallen apart over the past two months. Larger fleets are in far better shape for weathering the storm.

Shippers book maritime containers well before it turns into trucking and rail freight in the U.S. The relationship between international and domestic freight strengthened during the pandemic and they are both pointing toward a summer slump.

Not all loads are created equal in trucking. Loads moving across the country have a much greater impact on capacity and subsequently spot rates and they are disappearing at an astonishing rate compared to their shorter counterparts.

Many transportation managers and providers are expecting a return to a simpler time, but the data shows simpler times may be a thing of the past.

Heavily contracted carriers are not feeling the full brunt of the truckload market easing just yet, but there is still a lot to be determined about what happens next.

Slower transit times may be what shippers need as inventory levels and costs surge to all-time highs.

Stability lulled transportation managers and providers to sleep in the six years post-recession. The roller-coaster ride of the last four may be more indicative of their future.

Truckload capacity has been extremely difficult to secure over the past 18 months, but the tender data shows things may be changing, rapidly.

Inventory levels grew at an astonishing pace in February. Is the supply chain crisis ending?

The wild fluctuations in crude oil prices have created a strong disconnect between wholesale and retail diesel prices. What are the impacts on transportation costs and subsequently carrier bottom lines?

Relatively abundant for most of the pandemic, flatbed capacity has become scarcer than ever thanks to the surging price of crude and a white-hot construction sector.