The Stockout

Amid uncertain demand, capacity continues to exit.

Impact of levies seen in Canadian trucking, US imports, warehousing and intermodal.

Freight volume has been weak this month Tender volume, which counts how often shippers request that carriers pick up loads, has shown weakness this month. (Chart: SONAR) The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI – above) is the SONAR chart that stands out the most to me this week. It measures the volume of requests from […]

Freight market not tightening in time for bid season.

Demand is being pulled forward, ships are being built, and the Red Sea may reopen.

Articles and shows describe potential impact to numerous industries.

Spot rates rise, but inflection yet to take hold.

As truckload capacity exits, weak volume keeps rates in check.

Labor strife, volatile freight rates and fraud all have disruptive potential.

New policy could accelerate nearshoring trend.

Tender rejection rate rises as holidays approach The tender rejection rate has risen steadily since early October despite tender volume declining. That implies that capacity is leaving the market, which is leading to a tighter freight market. (Chart: SONAR) Both truckload spot rates and tender rejection rates are indicating that the freight market is tightening. […]

FreightWaves CEO expects rates to increase 4%+ in 2025.

SONAR shows carriers turning down more than 20% of outbound Ontario loads.

It’s that time of year – retail news abounds on FreightWaves and elsewhere I thought Target’s management team put it well last week as it now describes consumers as “resourceful,” meaning they are still shopping but are looking for value and waiting for deals, rather than “resilient,” the term it used previously. Along similar lines, […]

Data platform now provides LTL rates by class and intermodal contract rates by lane.

Alternative fuel equipment leader is actively building hydrogen fueling network.

Tariffs, taxes, the FTC and food regulations are among the major issues.

Expertise is key to navigating cargo insurance, security and customs issues in Mexico.

Latest The Stockout show explores sock puppets This is how RFK Jr. sees U.S. food regulators. (Image: FWTV) On Monday’s The Stockout show, which focuses on topics relevant to shippers in the retail and CPG industries, Grace Sharkey and I discussed how the election could impact those sectors. If Trump is elected, the Federal Trade […]

Tender rejection rates rise for reefer, but remain muted for dry van, suggesting supply and demand in the reefer segment is much more balanced.

Start your week with Brittain Ladd On Monday at 10 a.m. EDT, Grace Sharkey and I will again interview one of our favorite guests: outspoken independent consultant Brittain Ladd. The depth of Ladd’s expertise is impressive and spans companies and topics throughout the retail space and far beyond.  On his prior The Stockout appearance, his […]

Perishables and auto parts will get scarce if strike persists.

Biden administration said it won’t intervene, but is that really believable?

Biden administration says no to using Taft-Hartley to stop ILA strike.

FreightWaves covers ILA from many angles.

Tender rejections are anemic, and most LTL carriers are reporting down tonnage.

International Longshoremen’s Association delegates are to meet Wednesday and Thursday.

Groceries emerge as political football as Harris floats price controls.

Maritime expert cites carrier alliances’ ability to blank sailings to manage capacity.

Easing port congestion, seasonal demand trends make third surge improbable.

Ocean rates show surprising early summer bounce,

Losing share in boring items Target shares have severely underperformed Walmart over the past three years. (Chart: Barchart.com, Inc.) Target spent much of Wednesday’s earnings call talking about recent promotions, new product introductions and holiday-related sales. Examples include Target Circle Days, back to school, the launch of a private label outdoor brand, pickleball gear introductions, […]

Outspoken consultant shares views on India and Starbucks, among other things.

Future of Supply Chain discount code expires May 15  Stockouters, I want to see you in Atlanta! My subscribers can still access tickets to FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain at a reduced rate here, but not for long. The event takes place June 4-5 at the Georgia International Convention Center. Click here for what to […]

Largest online retailer to impose new inventory-placement and low-inventory fees.

Key Bridge reports includes news articles, data and expert commentary.

Ideal for consumer engagement, recurring packages face economic and logistical challenges.

Target Circle 360 leaves The Stockout hosts asking who it is for.

Shippers should facilitate supplier collaboration while bracing for potential freight market turn.

In addition to key issues in lawsuit, parties at odds over scope and time frame.

Governmental order could place safety burdens on e-commerce giant.

Activist pressure and focus on OR are at odds with optimal service levels.

Multimodal carrier considers volume a leading indicator and price a lagging one.

Tension between stores and suppliers has intensified amid commodity fluctuations.

CPG giant sees no impact from Red Sea drama, but consumer pressures remain evident.

Frictionless commerce tops list of retail trends.

Payments network is seeing only modest levels of freight capacity exiting the market.

Consumers remain remarkably spendy in the face of rising debt balances.

Holiday sports offer welcome reprieve from discouraging newsfeed.

Largest retailer joyously provides best reason yet for Walmart Plus.

Cartograh and TRAC Intermodal CEOs to be featured next week.

Carriers expect muted peak season with few spot opportunities.

GLP-1 drug use and wariness of ultraprocessed foods could hit sales.

FTC complaint highlights challenges that sellers face on the largest e-commerce platform.

Comments from Amazon merchandising expert add context to nuanced issue.

Pricing strategies advance as companies model changes in consumer behavior.

Smucker’s Twinkie defense points to recent growth in indulgent snacking.

The Stockout content breadth expands to include both CPG and retail logistics coverage.

Packaged coffee is an exception to sticky prices where consumers are benefiting from lower commodity costs.

Big-box sellers report healthier-than-expected consumers and stress high in-stock rates.

Numerous acquisitions the past several years bolstered logistics firm’s end-to-end capabilities.

Conagra says consumers are buying less while J.B. Hunt highlights lack of seasonal uptick.

British Columbia port workers’ strike ongoing and UPS Teamsters threatening to strike at month’s end.

New regulations could force CPGs to revise product formulas to eliminate common ingredients.

A proposed revision to FTC regulations would make canceling subscriptions as easy as signing up.

Upcoming revisions are likely to impact CPG ingredients, packaging and labeling.

Amid lower commodity costs, retail CPG prices should stick, leading to margin recovery.

Some supply chain issues remain, but moderating inflation helps margins recover.

Startups aim to help CPGs achieve clean labels while governments revise health regulations.

Production of palm oil, a common CPG ingredient, is associated with deforestation and human rights abuses.

Most food emissions come from ingredients, but the impact of packaging redesign is more immediate.

Automation benefits go beyond productivity and extend into food and worker safety.

Walmart and Target look to save shoppers from the indignity of checkout counters

Mixed commentary suggests that further ticket revisions will be ‘more surgical.’

TreeHouse Foods gains share despite lingering supply chain issues.

In addition to sugar, other regulatory updates pertain to sodium, whole grains and flavored milk.

Commodity prices have come down, but manufacturers say their costs are still rising.

The Food and Drug Administration has issued a 60-day notice of its plans to conduct research on front-of-package nutrition labels.

CPGs’ worst nightmare For certain CPG categories, I would argue that the worst thing that could happen isn’t a recession but consumers getting religion on healthy eating and avoiding the center of the grocery store altogether. Healthy eating aside, earlier this week The Wall Street Journal highlighted a second concern that may be gaining traction […]

Sugar reduction startups The consumer-packaged-goods-related article that I found most interesting this week was in FoodBusinessNews and it described three startups focused on developing very innovative sugar reduction alternatives. Here is a quick synopsis of those companies: Growing concern about sugar and salt intake Of course, there are easy ways for consumers to cut sugar. […]

Growing evidence of ‘shopper rebellion’ Elasticities, or the negative change in sales volume in response to rising prices, has been one of the main topics in the CPG industry in the past year. Despite two consecutive years of steeply rising prices, including last year’s CPG price growth of upward of 15% or more in many […]

Deceleration in Constellation Brands’ shipment growth and disappointing margin outlook Constellation Brands, the owner of the Corona and Modelo beer brands and various wine and spirits brands, such as Svedka Vodka, was among the first CPG companies to report earnings in the new year and it proved to be a controversial quarter. Shares declined 10% […]

Sick of earnings season yet? It’s this time of the quarter when I miss my old position as a sell-side stock analyst the least. For those looking to get caught up on earnings, there is plenty of coverage on FreightWaves. For freight carriers, the themes so far have been loosening market conditions and the lack […]

High butter prices expected to persist Butter is currently second only to eggs for the title of most inflationary food item, up 25% year over year, compared to 13%-14% for the entire grocery category. Inventories of cold butter at the end of July were the lowest since 2017. Those stocks are usually built up early […]

Industrial carbon dioxide shortage The industrial CO2 shortage is a supply chain issue that stands to impact the consumer packaged goods industry heavily with food and beverage manufacturing representing approximately 70% of the industrial CO2 usage. It is used to make beer, soda and sparkling water taste like themselves. It is also used to preserve […]

Consumer packaged goods companies (CPGs) and retailers are among the largest intermodal shippers. Today’s edition of The Stockout highlights data relevant for shippers that utilize rail intermodal or are looking to move in that direction for transportation savings and/or to promote dedication to environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives.  Will there truly be a peak […]

Has CPG ingredient inflation peaked?  I can only speculate whether the recent pullback in commodity prices will continue, but with crude oil off its high, crop prices well off their highs, many supply chain issues being worked through, retailers discounting prices to clear bloated inventories and the freight spot markets under pressure, inflation may not […]

General Mills’ supply chain disruptions to persist At a Wall Street conference earlier this month, Jonathan Nudi, General Mills’ president of North American retail, said, “We’re seeing 10 times the number of disruptions in our supply chain from an ingredient standpoint coming into our plants than we ever experienced before. And this gets really challenging […]

Kellogg splitsville As I am sure you’ve seen, the big CPG news Tuesday was that Kellogg will become three separate companies. Management will focus on the snacks/international business (I’ll call it Snack Co.) and plans to spin off the North American cereal business (Cereal Co.) and the plant-based businesses (Plant Co.) into separate entities, with […]

Ranked 39th on the Transport Topics list of top brokerage firms, Axle Logistics takes a consultative and streamlined approach to your shipping needs. Email sales@axlelogistics.com to connect with the team today!  Bipartisan agreement that rail service is poor  As described by FreightWaves’ Joanna Marsh, a group of 19 senators from 13 states wrote a letter […]

Ranked 39th on the Transport Topics list of top brokerage firms, Axle Logistics takes a consultative and streamlined approach to your shipping needs. Email sales@axlelogistics.com to connect with the team today!  Retail rout This week saw a rout in retail stocks with shares of Walmart and Target down 21% and 31%, respectively, during the past […]

Numerous companies, including CPG companies, at FreightWaves’ The Future of Supply Chain conference last week highlighted the difficulty of accurately forecasting. We heard that sentiment expressed from numerous companies, including transportation companies and intermediaries as well as CPG companies and other shippers. Basically, market forecasts are almost always too reflective of current market conditions without […]

CPG companies expect continued inflation on transportation costs this year. While there are plenty of signs on the horizon that suggest that a freight recession may be forthcoming, 2022 freight costs for most CPG companies are expected to be higher than they were in 2021. Procter & Gamble and Mondelez are among the major CPG […]

Procter & Gamble highlights the combination of commodity, freight and foreign exchange as having a combined 22% headwind on core EPS in its fiscal 2022 (ending June 30). The company’s organic sales grew 10% in its just-reported fiscal Q3 2022, broken down into pricing, volume and sales mix contributing 5, 3 and 2 points, respectively. […]

The truck market is correcting. If you haven’t read the article that FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller wrote last week titled, “Just 3 years after 2019 trucking bloodbath, another is on the way,” I recommend starting there. For those who prefer a video format and/or want more detail, Fuller discusses his thesis on the most recent […]

Supply chain improvement, leading to better on-shelf availability, drove positive variance relative to management’s prior guidance. Shares of General Mills rose 2.5% on Wednesday in a down market. The increase to the company’s full-year earnings guidance (earnings were previously expected to be 2% lower to 1% higher y/y and are now expected to be flat […]

Grocery prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in February. As miserable as the overall 7.9% inflation rate was for most consumers in February, grocery inflation outpaced it, with its highest rate of price growth in 40 years. The February year-over-year increase in grocery inflation exceeded the 7.9% year-over-year growth in January and grocery prices were also up […]

In a letter to associates, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said, “As a food and beverage company, now more than ever we must stay true to the humanitarian aspect of our business. That means we have a responsibility to continue to offer our other products in Russia, including daily essentials such as milk and other dairy […]

Will we see a depression in Russia, a recession in western Europe and slower positive economic growth in North America, or some other scenario? It’s not yet clear whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be impactful enough to drive a global recession, but the consensus is that the further rising prices of energy and agriculture as […]

Before getting into CPG news, I encourage readers of The Stockout to join us at The Future of Supply Chain event, which takes place May 9-10 at the Rogers Convention Centers in Northwest Arkansas. Keynote speakers include Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Jonathan Hoffman, former chief Pentagon spokesman. The CPG industry will be well represented […]