DHL has released a study looking at global trade for 2025 and how U.S. trade policy may impact it. The findings in the “DHL Trade Atlas 2025” report offer plenty of uncertainty on global trade and the U.S. as most trade partners wait for possible tariffs of varying percentages to take effect April 2 or be extended again. Amid that uncertainty, the global supply chain show must go on.
The report found that global trade is expected to grow moderately faster over the next five years compared with the previous decade. The growth will be a little slower than expected should the U.S. tariffs kick in and other countries retaliate.
The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China continues to fall, but U.S. reliance on made-in-China goods has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries have more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
Three main findings in the report:
- Only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ultimately ends up in a different country from where it was produced. There is still very large potential for trade growth.
- Three countries ranked among the top 30 on both the speed (growth rate) and scale (trade volume) of their goods trade over the past five years: the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Ireland.
- During the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third-largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).
The United States’ role in global trade, while significant, is not substantial enough to singlehandedly cause a reversal of global trade patterns. Currently, the U.S. accounts for 13% of global goods imports and 9% of global goods exports, the report notes. This means that while U.S. trade policies can certainly create disruptions that impact the rest of the world, their overall effect is unlikely to collapse the global trading system. Even if the U.S. were to significantly reduce its imports, some portion of that trade would be replaced by increased trade among other countries.
Market Check. Laredo, Texas, has grown to become a sizable market as it sees inbound cross-border volumes from Mexico, while also being one of the markets for the beginning of produce season. For right now, though, Laredo has seen little issue with carrier capacity as outbound tender rejections sit at 4.2%. While there is some tightening capacity as outbound tender rejections rise, it’s not enough of an increase to the Outbound Tender Reject Index to impact capacity significantly. Outbound tender volumes have also started falling, dropping 3.01% week over week.
With over 95% contract carrier compliance, shippers and brokers can expect strong routing guides and lower-than-national-average ($2.25-per-mile) spot rates.
Who’s with whom. March may not bring the full-on chaos of peak produce season, but it does mark the unofficial start. While Memorial Day is when things really kick into high gear, the southern-most parts of the U.S. are already warming up – literally and figuratively. South Texas and South Florida start seeing movement in March and April, with early crops like avocados, oranges and even some berries beginning to roll out.
This early part of the season isn’t just about moving freight; it’s also the perfect time to check in with produce customers. Think of it as a preseason tuneup – are your customers ready for the surge that’s coming? Have they locked in their transportation capacity?
It’s also a prime opportunity to reconnect with prospects who may have been quiet during the slower months. Maybe they thought they had their shipping needs covered, but as the season ramps up, they could find themselves in need of additional capacity or more flexible options. A well-timed check-in could mean the difference between landing a new account or missing out to a competitor.
While the rest of the country is still defrosting from winter, the early movers in produce logistics are already getting their game faces on. Now’s the time to sharpen your strategy, firm up your customer relationships and prepare for the rush ahead. After all, when produce season hits full swing, the last thing you want to be doing is playing catch-up.
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