Orders for Class 8 trucks were down in March, according to the two key agencies that supply that data, but the decline is not being described as significant.
According to ACT Research, preliminary data shows that North America Class 8 net orders were 17,300 units in March, which was down 10,400 units from February and 8.7% from a year ago.
Meanwhile, FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a net order figure of 18,200 Class 8 vehicles last month. FTR said that is down 34% from its February figure and 4% from March 2023.
Although the numbers on the surface appear to signal a big downturn in order books, that’s not the way the analysts at FTR and ACT see it.
“March orders are consistent with the recent demand trend and are in line with seasonal expectations,” FTR said in its release of the month’s estimate. “After maintaining an average level of around 27,000 units for the last three months, orders appear to be slowing at a seasonally typical rate. Build slots continue to be filled at a healthy rate. With March orders comparable to the March 2023 level, the market is still performing at a solid level.”
At ACT, analyst and Vice President Steve Tam saw a “forced conservatism among a portion of the truck buying populace,” which he said “capped” the level of new units ordered in March.
The preliminary figures are subject to later revisions. ACT said one of the factors for the revisions is a seasonal adjustment, which it said is a “middling” 1.3% in March. That would reduce the March figure to 17,100 units. ACT said March is the first month since 2023 that the seasonally adjusted total is fewer than 20,000 units.
FTR Chairman Eric Starks, in a prepared statement, also suggested the decline does not signal the start of a broader downturn.
“Despite weakness in the freight markets that has persisted for more than a year, fleets continue to be willing to order new equipment,” he said, saying the March figure was “in line with seasonal trends.
“Demand is not declining rapidly, but neither is the market doing significantly better than replacement level demand. Our expectation for replacement output by the end of this year is unchanged.”
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