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FTR, ACT Research report slower Class 8 build rates

Numbers aren’t surprising, given that July is among the slowest months of the year

John Kingston
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Class 8 vehicle orders declined in July, as they usually do. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

The two key reports on North American net Class 8 truck orders saw declines in July, both month over month and year over year.

FTR said in its monthly report on preliminary numbers that net orders in July were 12,400 units. That was down 6% from June and 7% from July 2023.

ACT Research reported net orders of 13,400 units. That was down 8% from a month earlier and 13% from July 2023. 


In prepared comments on the numbers, Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said July is historically “the worst month of the year for class 8 orders.” That means that in the seasonal adjustment of the raw data, it is given an adjustment factor of close to 24%, Vieth said.

“Applying that seasonal factor boosts July’s seasonally adjusted intake to 17,500 units, which results in a narrower 3.7% month on month decline,” Vieth said.

He said the Class 8 figures for the month were “at directionally and seasonally expected levels.”

FTR described its figures as “somewhat below seasonal expectations.” More broadly, FTR in its announcement of its estimates said the market for new Class 8 vehicle construction is now “performing slightly below replacement demand levels.” 


The average for 2024 so far is 19,400 net orders per month, according to FTR.

“The decline is unsurprising given the strong order performance in the first five months of the year and the typically weak seasonal order period,” the FTR release said. “After averaging nearly 16,000 units from April to June, orders have slowed to just under 15,000 units in the most recent three months.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, said “the overall picture [is] steady.”

But with a slower pace for new builds, Moyer said “the pressure on OEMs to reduce build rates continues to grow.”

Both companies will publish final data later in the month. 

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John Kingston

John has an almost 40-year career covering commodities, most of the time at S&P Global Platts. He created the Dated Brent benchmark, now the world’s most important crude oil marker. He was Director of Oil, Director of News, the editor in chief of Platts Oilgram News and the “talking head” for Platts on numerous media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business and Canada’s BNN. He covered metals before joining Platts and then spent a year running Platts’ metals business as well. He was awarded the International Association of Energy Economics Award for Excellence in Written Journalism in 2015. In 2010, he won two Corporate Achievement Awards from McGraw-Hill, an extremely rare accomplishment, one for steering coverage of the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster and the other for the launch of a public affairs television show, Platts Energy Week.