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High-frequency truckload data suggests the freight market is stabilizing

The freight market appears to be stabilizing, suggesting clear skies ahead. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Did the first quarter lull come early, in November and December of 2022? 

For carriers, the first quarter is always the most difficult period in the annual freight calendar, when retailers clear their excess holiday inventory, construction takes a pause for the frigid weather and everything is gloomy and cold. The soft first quarter often follows a robust fourth quarter, in which freight companies enjoy the annual peak season and make an outsized portion of their profits. Carriers look forward to spring for some market stability and potential market accelerations. 

Is it possible that winter came early this year? Did the freight winter start in November and now we are experiencing an early thaw? 

Early freight data and channel checks would suggest the freight market could be stabilizing and clearer skies are ahead. 


Over the past week, we’ve spoken with numerous freight executives who have mentioned that the first two weeks of the first quarter are shaping up better than expected, granted, expectations were incredibly low after such a weak peak. 
Going into the quarter, executives we spoke with predicted a significant collapse in freight for the first quarter, with a seasoned veteran executive of a large trucking technology firm predicting that the first quarter would be the worst in his four-decade career. It was a fair bet considering how challenging the second half of the 2022 was for most in the freight market.

Truckload spot rates, according to the FreightWaves National Truckload Index, hit a low of $1.67 on Nov. 17, 2022, and have since bounced back to $1.98 per mile.

FreightWaves SONAR: National Truckload Index. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Trucking tender volumes also suggest that the direst of predictions have not played out. Tender volumes on the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), an index that tracks the volumes of load requests from shippers to carriers, show that volumes briefly dipped below 2019 and 2020 levels, but they have since broken away from this baseline. 

The seasonal OTVI chart inside of SONAR tracks multiple years of truckload volume data. The white line is the current market, with previous years representing the colors in the chart key. 

If the first few weeks of the new year are an early omen, then the freight market may have bottomed in the fourth quarter and carriers can look forward to a far less volatile market in 2023.  


Interested in being the first to know about the changes in the global freight market so that you can prepare your business for market changes before your competitors? All of the data in this article is available via subscription to SONAR, the world’s leading high-frequency data platform.

To learn more about SONAR check out SONAR.FreightWaves.com.

10 Comments

  1. Michael Larry williams

    Yep you right these lies about things are better is a joke they might be making money but not you or me or any driver sitting for one hour or one day or days . These people need to wake up.

  2. Carlos

    🤡More BS from this propaganda media outlet. The rapidly growing used truck market clearly says the damage is deepening as the markets are sliding at the bottom with rates below operating cost for most trucking companies 🤡

  3. Craig Leonard

    We are doing fine, not great, but fine. Keep the trucks where the freight is and don’t chase rates into bad markets (Like Salt Lake City) We are averaging $1342 a day revenue for our dry vans in the spot market. Feeling pretty optimistic right now actually. Of course, my fingers are still crossed.

  4. sean

    salt lake and colorado (oregon as well) are black holes for outbound frieght….. thats why inbound pays pretty good… offeset the crap loads to get out of the NW

  5. John Crowley

    What are y’all smoking. I’ve been struggling for loads for the last couple of weeks. I’ve been stranded in Salt Lake City for 5 days. Load rate so low that I can’t take them.

Comments are closed.

Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves

Craig Fuller is CEO and Founder of FreightWaves, the only freight-focused organization that delivers a complete and comprehensive view of the freight and logistics market. FreightWaves’ news, content, market data, insights, analytics, innovative engagement and risk management tools are unprecedented and unmatched in the industry. Prior to founding FreightWaves, Fuller was the founder and CEO of TransCard, a fleet payment processor that was sold to US Bank. He also is a trucking industry veteran, having founded and managed the Xpress Direct division of US Xpress Enterprises, the largest provider of on-demand trucking services in North America.