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I wrote an article not even two months ago titled Weather’s wrath: Supply chains reel from 2024’s extreme events. Little did I know then what Mother Nature had in store for us. Since then, we’ve seen the devastation that Hurricane Helene wreaked on Southeastern states, and now Hurricane Milton is further impacting not just Florida, but the entire U.S. supply chain.
Milton is poised to deliver another blow to the disruptions caused by Helene. As I write this article, Hurricane Milton has developed into a powerful Category 4 hurricane and is taking aim at Florida’s west coast. Landfall is expected late Wednesday night, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane.
Milton is projected to make a direct hit on the Tampa Bay area, forcing the closure of major ports like Port Tampa Bay. Port Tampa Bay is a key hub for handling of imported goods such as petroleum products, steel, cement, aggregates, and food and beverages. Imports come from Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Colombia and Chile, as well as Germany, South Korea and China. The port also handles exports of phosphate, scrap metal, forest products, citrus products and a variety of manufactured goods including machinery, equipment and consumer products. The countries affected on the export side are China, India, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Canada, the Netherlands and Belgium. The port is also a major cruise hub, contributing to the region’s tourism industry.
The closure of the port will disrupt the flow of goods, leading to delays and congestion. With Tampa Bay out of commission, cargo ships will be diverted to other ports, potentially overwhelming their capacity and causing further delays along the Gulf and East coasts. This could exacerbate the congestion already present due to aftereffects of the International Longshoremen’s Association strike.
Hurricane-force winds and flooding will likely lead to road and rail closures in affected areas, hindering the movement of goods inland. This will disrupt trucking and rail operations, further delaying deliveries and impacting supply chains. Even after the storm passes, damaged infrastructure and debris may limit access to ports, making it difficult for trucks and trains to pick up or deliver cargo.
Strong winds and flooding could damage warehouses, distribution centers and other critical infrastructure, disrupting storage and fulfillment operations. This could lead to inventory losses and further delays in getting goods to consumers. Widespread power outages are expected, which could impact the operation of ports, transportation hubs and businesses involved in the supply chain.
Florida is home to a few industries that will be severely impacted. Milton’s path intersects with Florida’s citrus belt, potentially causing significant damage to crops and impacting production for years to come. This could lead to shortages and higher prices for citrus products. The storm will disrupt tourism and hospitality in Florida, affecting businesses that rely on these sectors for supplies and revenue.
Areas already impacted by Hurricane Helene, such as the Big Bend region of Florida, may face even more severe consequences from Milton. This cumulative damage will further strain resources and hamper recovery efforts.
The combined impact of both storms will put immense pressure on already-strained supply chains, leading to longer lead times, higher costs and potential shortages of goods.
But the impacts of the storm go beyond U.S. supply chains. The U.S. is a major player in global trade, and disruptions to its supply chains have ripple effects worldwide. Delays and shortages of U.S. exports can impact businesses and consumers in other countries, particularly those reliant on U.S.-sourced goods. Asian countries that import significant amounts of agricultural products from the U.S., such as citrus fruit, may experience shortages and price increases. European manufacturers relying on U.S.-sourced components may face production delays and disruptions due to the storm’s impact on shipping and logistics. Trade between the U.S. and Latin America could be affected, as shipping routes and logistics hubs in the Gulf of Mexico are disrupted.
The disruptions are likely to drive up shipping costs, as carriers face increased expenses due to delays, rerouting and potential damage to vessels. These costs will be passed on to businesses and consumers globally, contributing to inflationary pressures. The storm’s impact on vulnerable communities may require international humanitarian assistance. Disruptions to supply chains can hinder relief efforts and the delivery of aid.
The cumulative impact of these weather events had been staggering. When I last wrote about this in August, supply chain disruptions in 2024 were estimated to have cost companies globally upwards of $100 billion. Millions of people are expected to be affected by Milton, with evacuations ordered in many areas. Early estimates suggest potential economic losses in the billions of dollars due to infrastructure damage, business disruptions and lost productivity. Port Tampa Bay alone handles millions of tons of cargo annually.
Milton serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the far-reaching consequences of natural disasters. As the storm’s impact unfolds, businesses and governments in Florida, across U.S. states as well as worldwide will need to collaborate and adapt to mitigate the disruptions and support recovery efforts.
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About the author
Bart De Muynck is an industry thought leader with over 30 years of supply chain and logistics experience. He has worked for major international companies, including EY, GE Capital, Penske Logistics and PepsiCo, as well as several tech companies. He also spent eight years as a vice president of research at Gartner and, most recently, served as chief industry officer at project44. He is a member of the Forbes Technology Council and CSCMP’s Executive Inner Circle.