Import cargo volumes at the nation’s major retail container ports in November grew 6 percent from last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Import cargo volumes at the major United States retail container ports is expected to slowly decline through the first quarter of the year following a relatively weak traditional peak holiday shipping season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report in November, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, handled 1.48 million TEUs, down 5 percent from October but up 6 percent from November 2014. Hackett Associates previously predicted November volumes at 1.5 million TEUs, which would have been a 7.4 percent year-over-year increase.
“This is the time of year when the retail supply chain catches its breath before the next big rush begins,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Retailers are still tallying the bottom line of the holiday season, but they’re also making plans for the spring and summer.”
Hackett Associates estimates December volumes at the ports will reach 1.44 million TEUs, essentially unchanged from 2014. The firm projects throughput in January, 2016 to be 1.47 million TEUs, a year-over-year increase of 18.9 percent as volumes rebound from a year ago when contentious labor contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and their employers caused slowdowns and serious congestion at U.S. West Coast ports.
Volume growth in February and March volume are also expected to be “skewed” by the congestion issues of earl 2015. February is forecast at 1.41 million TEUs, up 17.5 percent while March is forecast at 1.34 million TEU, down 22.4 percent from the high levels seen when backlogged cargo flooded ports immediately following the contract agreement.
Patterns are expected to return to normal in April and May, forecast at 1.48 million TEUs (down 1.8 percent) and 1.55 million TEUs (down 3.5 percent), respectively, from last year.
Although the numbers are still subject to revision, the report estimates those ports handled a total of 18.2 million TEUs in 2015, a 5.4 percent increase compared to 2014.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said inventory levels remain high, partly because of warm weather that reduced demand for winter clothing, but added analysts can’t continue to blame this on the congestion issues of early 2015.
“We continue to remain concerned about the high inventory-to-sales ratio,” said Hackett. “Enough time has passed since the disruption on the West Coast that we can no longer look to that for justification of the high level.”
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.
NRF: U.S. container imports rise in November
