Major container ports in the United States handled 1.64 million TEUs in November, down 6.6 percent from October but up 11.2 percent from November 2015, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Retail shoppers are expected to spend $655.8 billion this holiday season
Source: graphicmaker / Shutterstock
Import volumes at major container ports in the United States saw an “unexpected” increase during the peak holiday shopping (and shipping) season in 2016, according to the latest monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 1.64 million TEUs in November, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, down 1.6 percent from October but up 11.2 percent compared with the same 2015 period. NRF noted it had previously projected November volumes to grow just 3.6 percent compared with the previous year.
The report forecasts December volumes at 1.54 million TEUs, a 7 percent increase from the prior year, also up from a previous 3.2 percent growth projection.
The numbers come as NRF is forecasting $655.8 billion in holiday sales, a 3.6 percent increase over last year. Although cargo volumes do not correlate directly to sales, volumes do serve as a barometer of retailers’ expectations, NRF said.
Total volumes for the year are expected to grow 2.9 percent to 18.8 million TEUs compared with the full year in 2015. First half volumes stood at 9 million TEUs, up 1.6 percent from the prior year period.
Looking ahead to the beginning of 2017, January is forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, up 5.7 percent from January 2016; February at 1.52 million TEUs, down 1.5 percent year-over-year; March at 1.41 million TEUs, up 6.5 percent; April at 1.55 million TEUs, up 7.3 percent; and May at 1.61 million TEUs, down 0.5 percent from last year.
“We won’t see final sales numbers for a few more days, but import volume suggests that retailers had a strong holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Retailers don’t import merchandise unless they think they can sell it.”
“Economic data is fickle by nature – it surges and falls and often surprises us,” added Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “There is both optimism and pessimism and pointers showing growth as well as decline.”
Global Port Tracker, which is produced by Hackett Associates for the NRF, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.