Port Tracker: Fewer boxes in port evidence of slowing U.S. economy
Container throughput at the biggest U.S. ports will see weak growth or even declines over the coming months due to the nation’s economic slowdown, according to the monthly Port Tracker report of the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.
For 2008, the NRF has set its lowest economic forecast since 2002, at 3.5 percent growth. The retail body is backing legislation pending in Congress to boost consumer spending by providing taxpayers with rebate checks.
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Gold |
'Container traffic at the ports is a leading economic indicator because it reflects retailers' expectations for sales,' said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. 'With the industry expecting the slowest growth in a half-dozen years, we're going to see little increase in cargo on the docks.'
December was expected to halt a run of four consecutive months of container volume decline, but holiday sales were disappointing with the Commerce Department reporting the weakest holiday season in five years at 3 percent sales growth.
U.S. ports surveyed in the month of December by Port Tracker — Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — handled 0.9 percent fewer containers year on year at 1.3 million TEUs.
If Port Tracker’s forecasts for January (1.28 million TEUs — down 1.1 percent) and February (1.21 million TEUs, down 7.6 percent) are accurate, container traffic at those ports will have declined for seven straight months. The numbers are expected to take an upward turn in March, which is forecast at 1.3 million TEUs, 2.5 percent higher year on year. April is forecast at 1.38 million TEUs, up 4 percent, while May’s expected volume has been put at 1.4 million TEUs, up 1.7 percent. However, June is forecast for a 0.9 percent decline at 1.44 million TEUs.
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Bingham |
Due to the lower numbers of containers being processed in the ports, the flow of boxes is expected to be smooth. 'Most ports are operating without congestion from the harbor to the gate,' said Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham. 'Seattle and Tacoma are threatened with near-term winter weather-related delays and are rated medium for congestion. But rail service showed continued adequate performance in January and apart from some weather disruptions intermodal rail operations are expected to continue to perform acceptably over the next six months.'