Port Tracker: More TEU records on the way
Traffic at the Port of New York and New Jersey and the nation's other major retail container ports will top last year's record high for three months in a row beginning in August as cargo destined for sale during the all-important holiday season begins to move across the docks, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.
'Now that we're in peak season, August is going to be a very busy month and is expected to break the record set last October,' Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. 'September will be slightly slower but will still top last October, and this October will set another whole new record.
'Despite the heavy volume, all the ports we cover are operating without congestion from harbor to gate, and shippers can be confident the system will have adequate capacity to provide acceptable performance for the remainder of the year,' Bingham said. 'Rail performance for getting cargo away from the ports continues to be below last year's levels, but is still acceptable and should be adequate for the peak season surge in volume.'
Port Tracker set the congestion rating for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach at 'moderate' last month because of the threat of an office clerical union strike that could have disrupted operations. But International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 63, the Marine Clerks Association, has agreed on a new contract since then, and the ports have returned to their previous congestion rating of 'low.'
The remainder of U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker — Hampton Roads, Va., Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga., on the East Coast; Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — are all rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.
'This pattern of new records being broken early shows that retailers are bringing holiday season merchandise into the country sooner than in the past,' said Erik Autor, NRF vice president and international trade counsel.
Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.45 million TEUs of container traffic in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 3.2 percent from June 2006 and up 6.2 percent from this May. Volume continued up in July, which was estimated at 1.5 million TEUs, an 8.1 percent increase from July 2006.
Ports in the survey are expected to set a record high in August, which is forecast at 1.56 million TEUs, up 5 percent from August 2006 and easily breaking last October's record of 1.51 million TEUs. Volume should drop to 1.52 million TEUs in September, 2.1 percent better than last September, and continuing to top last October.
This October, traditionally the busiest month of the year, is forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, a 4.1 percent increase from a year ago and a new record. After the October peak, traffic should drop to 1.46 million TEUs in November (up 3.2 percent from November 2006) and 1.4 million TEUs in December (up 7.9 percent from December 2006).