Report: Far East ports to handle 487 millions TEUs by 2020
Container volumes at ports in the Far East could jump as much as 157 percent to 487 million TEUs by 2020, according to a report by United Kingdom-based Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd.
OSG’s “East Asian Containerport Markets to 2020” report highlights that Asian ports’ box volumes improved 78 percent to 189.4 million TEUs from 2000 to 2005.
“The pace of growth in East Asia’s containerport markets has been dramatic in recent years. This has been driven by the globalization of the world economy and the rise of China as the world’s manufacturing center. These have spurred the development of deep-sea, intra-Asian and transshipment trades,” OSG said.
Based on a positive model without protectionist measures or unexpected shocks to trade, OSG forecasts that container volumes at Asian ports will increase 157 percent from 2005’s figure to 487 million TEUs in 2020.
“Exports from China to the U.S. and Europe are underpinning the growth of China’s manufacturing industry, and drawing in imports of raw materials and intermediate products from other parts of the world, in turn providing the earnings for them to import more consumer goods too,” OSG said.
“However, the U.S. trade deficit with China, in particular, is causing concern and raises the possibility of protectionist measures or other short-term shock to trade.
“Whilst the U.S. trade deficit continues to grow, the risk of a sudden, rather than managed, adjustment of exchange rates and trade flows will also increase. A sudden collapse in the dollar would strain the ability of the U.S. to continue financing its import boom and could place a sharp check on transpacific trade growth,” OSG said.
Even using a lower-growth scenario, OSG still expects a healthy increase to Asian container volumes, predicting an increase of 119 percent to 415 million TEUs by 2020. An even more extreme “increased-risk scenario” puts growth at 104 percent to 386 million TEUs.
“The risk of a sudden adjustment is likely to peak beyond say 2010. The lower growth resulting from a sudden adjustment would reduce imbalances and therefore the protectionist pressures. Hence, it is anticipated that a recovery would follow.”