Copenhagen-based consulting firm SeaIntel predicts that ultra-large vessels, in excess of 18,000 TEUs, will double their market share on east-west routes by the end of 2018.
Containerships with capacity for 18,000 TEUs and above will double their market share on the Asia-North Europe trade lane by the end of next year, according to SeaIntel’s Sunday Spotlight report.
Currently, 35 percent of the market share in the Asia-North Europe trade lane is made up of containerships of the “ultra-large” size. SeaIntel estimates that if capacity deployed on the Asia-North Europe trade lane grows 5 percent annually for the next two years, the share of ultra-large vessels will jump to 61 percent by the end of 2018.
“The proportion of capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade operated with ultra-large vessels will grow significantly, which will then have the secondary effect of shifting ‘smaller’ vessels in the 10,000-14,000 TEU range to other trades,” Lars Jensen, CEO of SeaIntel, said in a statement to American Shipper.
There are currently 58 ultra-large vessels in operation in the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with an additional 47 vessels already in the order books, according to SeaIntel data. The “smaller” vessels currently deployed on the east-west trade lanes will be shifted into other markets as they are too young for scrapping.
SeaIntel also predicts that the added capacity resulting from the deployment of UCLs and the cascading of current Asia-North Europe vessels could impact future rate levels.
“The ultra-large container vessels lead to an increase in massive bursts of containers to be handled at once, rather than being spread across the week, which can pose a major challenge to ports and terminals, and downstream on the hinterland,” added SeaIntel CEO Alan Murphy.
SeaIntel: 18,000-TEU vessels could double Asia-North Europe market share
