With the freight recession seemingly in the rearview mirror, FreightWaves’ transportation market experts advise on how to prepare for 2025.
Perhaps the biggest question of 2023 for domestic trucking is when will the surplus of capacity fade to a point that prices stop falling. One data point provides deeper insight than simply a count of drivers or tractors.
When trucking capacity tightens and rates increase, intermodal shipping by rail becomes more attractive in general. That does not appear to have happened during the pandemic years.
Lunar New Year normally brings a slow shipping period for imports, but the lead-in period was also lackluster. With many companies calling for a return to seasonal patterns later in the year, just how close are we to that being a reality?
Many people get hung up on trying to figure out how much capacity is readily available in trucking when they should be more focused on monitoring demand trends.
Outbound demand in Harrisburg and Allentown, Pennsylvania, bottomed out at the start of the month and are starting to slowly rise. Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, both are seeing rejection rates drop to a two-year low.
Atlanta still owns the most market share by outbound volume but saw a drop in its value as demand falls further. Imports to the Port of New York and New Jersey fell to their lowest levels since 2021, bringing surface transportation volumes down with them.
Contracted tender volumes in Ontario, California, remain at their lowest levels since 2020, and markets in Illinois are struggling to recover from drops this month.
Markets along the East Coast in the path of Tropical Depression Nicole are seeing relatively normal fluctuations in rejections in volume compared to previous severe storms.
Dry van volume dropped significantly this month leading into the holidays, but reefer demand remains strong. Diesel price per gallon grows slowly, but the spread between wholesale and retail prices rises.
Markets across the board have been seeing drops in both inbound and outbound volume since the start of the month.
Outbound volumes from Atlanta are picking back up after hitting their lowest levels since 2020, and imports to the Port of New York and New Jersey drop, dragging truckload volumes with them.
FreightWaves unveiled two new features in SONAR at the F3 event, and container spot rates from China dropped further.
Truckload volumes in Elizabeth, New Jersey, are still rising after a boost in imports last week, but that will likely change in the days ahead. Detroit’s volume boom went bust, bringing reactions to their lowest on record since 2018.
Charlotte, North Carolina, is seeing a slow recovery after volumes dropped to their lowest levels since February of 2021, and reefer volume in Milwaukee is up more than 22% this week.
Trans-Pacific trade is the foundation of American retail and industry. But souring U.S.-China relations threaten that.
Outbound demand in Denver is swinging up after falling to a two-year low earlier this month, and Salt Lake City has shown consistent headhaul market activity since Labor Day.
Outbound demand in Fort Worth, Texas, is up for the second week in a row, and diesel prices have stopped increasing but show no sign of which direction they will go next.
Ontario, California, outbound volumes have been trending up the last two weeks, while volumes in Joliet, Illinois, started to recover but have flatlined.
Overall outbound volume levels out of Milwaukee are down this month, with the majority of the drop coming from reefer demand. Atlanta’s outbound volumes have trickled down this month, bringing down its market share.
Imported container volumes to the Port of New York and New Jersey are up this week after a 27% decline, and outbound volumes in Detroit remain high but aren’t gaining any more ground.
Dallas lost more market share by outbound volume this week as volumes continue to decline, and spot rates from China to the East and West coasts of the US dropped after a week of little to no change.
Volumes out of Seattle are trending up this week after reaching a two-year low, and diesel prices are up more than 30 cents since the start of the month.
Imports to the Port of Houston saw an increase in the first week of October, bringing up truckload volumes. Fall produce in Spokane, Washington, builds demand.
Imported container volumes to LA are up this week after taking a drop in the beginning of Q4, allowing the surface transportation market to start to recover leading into peak season.
Demand peaked over the summer in Detroit, but volumes are taking a sharp drop this month; and Nashville sees a major upswing in Q4.
Reefer volumes in Illinois remained elevated throughout most of October 2021. Although they were up leading into October this year, reefer volumes have since dropped significantly.
After a monthlong decline in volumes from Southern California, they begin to tick upward this week, and spot rates from Rotterdam to New York rise 8.4%.
The Lakeland and Jacksonville markets are both recovering from Ian, but tender rejections remain relatively high. Retail diesel prices are swinging back up, collapsing the spread between retail and wholesale.
After reaching a six-month high in outbound demand, volume in Chicago is on a steady downward stream, and both major markets in Pennsylvania are also experiencing declines.
As Southern California is the heartbeat of outbound truckload volume, the significant decrease in freight coming out of the region reflects in national freight volumes; maritime booking volume from all ports in SONAR Container Atlas are down 20% from this time last year.
Atlanta is seeing consistent levels of outbound volume, retaining the majority market share with 4.1%. Diesel prices are decreasing at a faster rate than they increased over the summer.
The port of Savannah imported more than 200,000 TEUs in September, and truckload volumes in Denver plunged to a two-year low.
Reefer volumes in Fresno, California, continue a decline as September closes, while both inbound and outbound volumes in Memphis, Tennessee, are consistently trending upward.
Atlanta is seeing a sharp rise in outbound volume, and markets in Florida, southern Georgia and Alabama increase inbound volume in preparation for the hurricane.
Truckload volumes in Ontario, California, decline as the ports hit their lowest market share in decades, and Port Houston sees a drop in imports.
Outbound volumes from Detroit are back to their highest levels on record since 2018, and the spread in intermodal rates between Atlanta and LA is its lowest since 2021.
FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller outlines how FreightWaves SONAR pointed to the global freight recession months ago.
Outbound volume in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, is booming, raising its market share to 3%. Flatbed market experiences a significant decrease in rejections.
Ontario, California, makes a full recovery of outbound volume, and the spread between rates to import to the East and West coasts increases.
FreightWaves has partnered with MerQube to bring the first index to track the performance of the supply chain and logistics industry. National outbound volume levels out while rejection rates continue their decline.
SONAR data for Sept. 12 shows reefer volumes in Memphis are heating up, while the larger reefer market of Milwaukee is seeing a decrease.
Phoenix and Denver are both seeing an uptick in outbound volumes days after the holiday drop, and capacity in Elizabeth, New Jersey, handles the increased port volume.
Containerized imports to Savannah were increasing before the holiday, and rejection rates out of Dallas fell 100 basis points since Monday.
The rate at which carriers are rejecting freight out of LA is pushing spot market rates upward, while the opposite is happening in Detroit.
At the start of September, outbound volumes in Indianapolis dropped 4.5% overnight. Meanwhile, in Greenville, South Carolina, they increased 14.5% overnight.
Salt Lake City is seeing increased outbound volume to start September, while Denver continues to experience a decline.
Outbound volumes from New Orleans are rising sharply at the end of the month while they plunge in San Antonio.
Dwell times in the Port of Los Angeles dropped below four days, and outbound volumes are up in Savannah, Georgia, due to more imports being sent to the East Coast.
Outbound volumes in Allentown continue to rise at the start of the week, and Detroit levels are nearing a record since 2018.
Outbound volumes in Ontario are up after a 12.3% drop earlier this month but decline in the formerly greener pastures of South Carolina.
Imported twenty-foot equivalent units cleared through customs to the Port of New York and New Jersey fell last week, and truckload volumes in St. Louis are climbing this week.
Outbound volumes are their highest on record in Las Vegas, but Austin, Texas, sees an even larger increase.
Reefer volumes in Northern California start to fall, and Bowling Green, Kentucky, shows signs of a headhaul market.
Volumes out of Dallas fall while rejections rise; Indianapolis sees respectable increases in both.
The discrepancy between inbound and outbound volumes in Louisville, Kentucky, is the greatest it has been on record. Philadelphia continues to see an increase in the Headhaul Index.
Outbound tender volumes are driving down the Headhaul Index in Baltimore, while volumes in Detroit continue to soar.
The Headhaul Index in Denver dropped to its lowest score since June, and both inbound and outbound volumes in New Orleans remain undecided on which direction to take.
The freight market in Lexington, Kentucky, continues to heat up, as Jacksonville, Florida, cools down.
Outbound tender rejection rates in Memphis fell hard to the lowest value since April 2020, while outbound volumes in Philadelphia continue to rise.
Outbound volume from northern California has jumped in August, and rejection rates have soared in Baltimore from increased volumes and protests at the port.
Detroit sees at least a 20% decrease in both inbound and outbound volumes, and imports to the Northeast are slow to transition to the truckload market.
Philadelphia is a backhaul market that has switched to a headhaul market so far this year, and outbound volumes in Louisville, Kentucky, have reached their highest point since SONAR began tracking the market in 2018.
Jacksonville shows steady signs of its headhaul nature after backhaul activity earlier this year. Outbound volumes in Salt Lake City have decreased 11% in August.
A traditionally strong backhaul market, San Antonio experiences headhaul market activity for the first time, and the amount of imports diverted to Gulf ports is being felt in the truckload market.
Outbound volumes from Ontario, California, continue to dive, while smaller markets such as Greenville, South Carolina, show signs of increase.
Outbound volumes in Detroit explode as both inbound and outbound tenders heat up the market in Boston.
The Port of New York and New Jersey is seeing an increased amount of imports, but they are not hitting the truckload market.
Headhaul markets such as Chicago continue to see a decrease in outbound volume, while backhaul markets like New Orleans experience growth.
Outbound reefer tender volumes for San Francisco have risen 54% in the past two months, while outbound volume for Phoenix has risen 20% in two weeks.
Backhaul markets are seeing more outbound volume, while traditional headhaul markets are beginning to see more inbound volume.
Markets in the Southeast, North and Midwest are experiencing an increase in outbound volume that some haven’t seen in almost a year.
Pittsburgh is experiencing a rise in both outbound and inbound tender volumes simultaneously.
Seattle, a traditional backhaul market, is now experiencing headhaul market activity.
Outbound volumes are rising in Joliet but rejections are decreasing, pointing to a higher acceptance rate of contract loads.
Indianapolis’ outbound volume caused the Headhaul Index to increase 36.1% week over week, and outbound loads within 100 miles of the San Francisco market are being rejected as a result of protests.
Outbound tender volumes for Dallas begin to trend upward, and LA is beginning to see more lanes than usual under 250 miles.
Outbound volumes for Philadelphia have increased while inbound loads decrease, which is not typical for this traditionally backhaul market.
Outbound reefer volumes for Milwaukee trend upward during the summer months more than others.
Outbound tender city volume in the Detroit market has boomed over the summer with no signs of slowing in the second half of the year.
Pennsylvania markets see a drop in volumes but a rise in rejections. Booking volumes for imported maritime volumes are down 11%.
The Atlanta market is beginning to boom again after experiencing a significant dip during the recent holiday.
Import market share to LA and Long Beach remains high, but overall imports have decreased.
Volumes fall and rejections rise, signifying that capacity is still tight following the Fourth of July.
Refrigerated volume out of the San Francisco area has begun to pick up just in time for summer peak season.
Denver’s outbound tender rejections drop after the holiday to their lowest point in more than two years, while in Allentown, Pennsylvania, they remain strong at 9.8%.
Rejection rates out of Savannah, Georgia, jump to 12.8% while capacity also tightens in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Outbound tender volumes for Charlotte, North Carolina, are falling 8.1% week-over-week as Atlanta’s rises 6.8%.
Outbound tender volumes for Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are rising 7.1% week over week and rejections out of Chicago have climbed up to 6.5%.
The Port of New York and New Jersey has seen a rise of 49% in the last week while tender rejections out of Elizabeth remain stable at 6.5%.
Atlanta heats up with rejection rates of 10.9%, and large enterprise carriers are still making a profit from diesel prices.
Outbound tender volume for New Orleans spikes 21% in the last 90 days, and the outbound rejection index for Houston rises 115 basis points.
Outbound tender volumes for Columbus rise, and tender rejections out of Atlanta reach above the national average.
Spot market rates from Atlanta to Columbus, Ohio, have increased 3.2% in the last month, and the railways struggle with labor issues.
Outbound tender volumes for Green Bay are increasing 4.8% week-over-week, and costs per forty-foot container from Germany rise more than $400 since March.
Outbound tender volumes for New Orleans are rising 12% week-over-week, and linehaul rates continue to drop despite the rise in fuel costs.
Denver’s outbound tender rejections rise to 10.9%, and Market Dashboard now has new features for better visibility.
Tender rejections out of Chicago drop to 6.3%, while El Paso sees a boom of 25% in outbound volume and 28.6% increase in rejections.
Tender rejections out of Ontario are at their lowest point since 2020, and import volume from Japan has increased 90% in the last year.
