Tracking Dorian
Tropical Storm Dorian has changed course a bit, heading for the U.S. Virgin (USVI) Islands and eastern Puerto Rico (PR) today, August 28, 2019. Then, Dorian will likely brush by the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday, probably as a Category 1 hurricane, possibly followed by the southeastern coast of the U.S.
As of 11:00 a.m.EDT today, Dorian was centered about 25 miles southeast of St. Croix in the USVI, and sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, just a bit shy of hurricane strength.
Based on the latest outlook in FreightWaves SONAR, Dorian could strike eastern Florida on Sunday or Labor Day, possibly as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Effects of the storm will stretch to other areas of the southeastern coast.
Hurricane conditions – winds of at least 74 mph – are likely in the USVI within the next 24 hours.Tropical storm conditions (winds of 39 to 73 mph) are likely in PR within the next 24 hours, with hurricane conditions possible within 24 hours. Dorian will impact local businesses and supply chains in the USVI and PR over the next few days, including disruptions to communications and water systems that could last for days or weeks afterward. Short-term delays in maritime shipping routes, some air cargo routes and at oil facilities are also likely.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Hurricane Warning for the USVI and a Tropical Storm Warning for PR as Dorian becomes better organized and bigger. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 80 miles from the eye, compared to 45 miles yesterday.
The USVI, as well as southern and eastern areas of PR could receive four to six inches of rainfall from Dorian, with isolated sports of eight to 10 inches. This could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides/landslides. Preliminary forecasts indicate rain totals of four to eight inches for portions of the U.S. southeastern coast and the northwestern Bahamas.
Tale of two regions
Dry thunderstorms, low afternoon humidity, and frequent lightning will increase the threat for wildfire development across portions of Utah, Arizona and northern California this afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds could spread smoke across highways, resulting in reduced visibility and difficulty deadheading. There’s also a wildfire risk in parts of Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warnings for these areas.
However, storms in the Northeast won’t be dry. In fact, storms could cause localized flash flooding along I-95 from southern Connecticut to Maine.
Have a great day, and be careful out there!
