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Trump’s Trade Playbook: The Earth was never flat, after all

Economic growth must not come at expense of national security

President-elect Donald Trump boasts new trade policies for China, as a shift in global trade becomes apparent. (Photo: lev radin/Shutterstock)

Thomas Friedman’s “The World Is Flat” painted an optimistic picture of globalization, where economic borders would dissolve, leading to a world of endless opportunities and mutual prosperity through interconnected economies. This vision, however, has faced significant scrutiny and revaluation, especially post-COVID-19.

The vulnerability of global trade networks

The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the fragility of global supply chains. Far from being resilient, these networks were shown to be highly susceptible to disruptions, as the world grappled with shortages and delays that had ripple effects across various industries.

China’s shift in priorities

Before the health crisis, the belief was that China’s economic strategy was all about maintaining its status as the world’s factory. But under Xi Jinping, China has pivoted, showing it’s willing to prioritize political control over economic gains. This willingness to undermine its own export economy for internal policy control has been a wake-up call.

Geopolitical realities over economic ties

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite the economic harm to both nations, starkly demonstrated that geopolitical strategies can override economic interdependence. This action underscored the limitations of economic ties in preventing conflict, suggesting that economic interdependence alone isn’t a reliable peacekeeper.


The asymmetrical nature of trade

The concept of free trade between nations like the U.S. and China has been revealed to be less reciprocal than anticipated. American companies face substantial barriers when entering the Chinese market, often forced into partnerships that lead to the loss of intellectual property and control over technology. This imbalance shows that what was thought to be a level playing field is, in fact, tilted.

Strategic competition and economic strategy

The original intent behind opening trade with China was to integrate it into the global economic system, promoting liberalization and reducing the risk of conflict. While economic growth was achieved, reducing poverty, it also positioned China as a formidable strategic competitor. China now uses its economic leverage for national security objectives, complicating global economic stability.

The need for new economic diplomacy

Given these developments, there is an urgent need to reassess how nations engage in global trade. The old models of globalization, centered on open markets and economic interdependence, must evolve. A new approach should balance the advantages of global commerce with protecting national interests, ensuring economic security alongside prosperity.

In this complex geopolitical landscape, the simplistic view of a “flat world” has been replaced by a nuanced understanding of global trade dynamics, where strategic interests and national security play as significant a role as economic incentives. The challenge now lies in crafting policies that navigate this intricate balance, ensuring economic growth does not come at the expense of national security.


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Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves

Craig Fuller is CEO and Founder of FreightWaves, the only freight-focused organization that delivers a complete and comprehensive view of the freight and logistics market. FreightWaves’ news, content, market data, insights, analytics, innovative engagement and risk management tools are unprecedented and unmatched in the industry. Prior to founding FreightWaves, Fuller was the founder and CEO of TransCard, a fleet payment processor that was sold to US Bank. He also is a trucking industry veteran, having founded and managed the Xpress Direct division of US Xpress Enterprises, the largest provider of on-demand trucking services in North America.