WASHINGTON — Mexico and Canada will see a 25% tariff on imports into the U.S. starting on Saturday if President Trump holds to his word.
The memorandum outlining his administration’s “America First Trade policy” does not set a specific date that the tariffs will take effect, but rather directs federal departments and agencies with tariff oversight to provide reports and make recommendations by April 1.
After issuing the memo, however, Trump told reporters they would go into effect on Feb. 1, and he suggested days after that an additional 10% tariff on China (because of its alleged role in the fentanyl crisis), as well as possible tariffs and sanctions on Russia related to the war with Ukraine would be imposed.
“The February 1 date for Canada and Mexico still holds,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday, adding that Trump is also “still very much considering” the 10% added tax on China starting Saturday as well.
But will the president actually stick to that date?
“No one knows the answer to this question, and it would be improper to speculate,” said Timothy Brightbill, an international trade law expert and partner at the law firm Wiley Rein, speaking during a webinar hosted by the firm last week.
“But the memo does indicate that the administration is going to be smart about this, get its teams across the executive branch in place and do a comprehensive assessment of many of these issues.
“At the same time, it’s wrong to assume that nothing will happen before April 1, so don’t discount these statements by President Trump as mere posturing, and don’t make assumptions. For companies that would be affected by tariffs, hoping and wishing is not a strategy.”
According to a recent report by supply chain consultancies Iter Consulting and AIMMS, 38% of US companies are only somewhat prepared for trade policy changes and instead plan to rely on suppliers to absorb increased tariff costs.
“This leaves them vulnerable to unplanned cost surges and supply chain disruptions if suppliers pass on tariff related costs,” the report asserts.
And if the tariffs do begin on Saturday, shippers will need to immediately take stock of what goods they have in the supply chain, customs broker Kuehne + Nagel recommended.
Key players
Wiley Rein noted four key people in the Trump administration who will be responsible for carrying out its trade and tariff agenda:
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
- Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick.
- US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
- White House Senior Counsel for Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro.
Three others who will have significant influence over how and when tariffs are rolled out:
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
- Office of Management and Budget Director nominee Russell Vought.
- White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
Nazak Nikakhtar, who served in the first Trump administration as assistant secretary for industry and analysis at the International Trade Administration, compared the approach Trump and his team took during that term with regard to tariffs to what she expects in the current term.
“I characterize the first Trump administration as being experimental,” said Nikakhtar, now a colleague of Brightbill’s at Wiley Rein.
“He used these [economic] tools not as much as he would have liked but kind of wanted to see how far he would get. He took these tools right up to the red line but didn’t cross those red lines, and his actions were upheld in courts.
“Now I think the entire team feels emboldened. They know how the rules work, they know they want to move fast, and they’re going to be executing quickly. They’ve witnessed the steady hollowing-out erosion of our manufacturing base, and they want to stop that and reshore as much as possible.”
A widespread review
The departments of Treasury and Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative are responsible for 22 of 23 reports required under the America First trade plan, according to the memo.
Those reports, as summarized by the law firm Blank Rome, direct executive branch reviews of a range of trade and tariff policies, among them:
- The cause of annual trade deficits and potential policies to remedy them.
- The feasibility of establishing and the best methods for designing and implementing an External Revenue Service to collect tariffs.
- Unfair trade practices by other countries and actions needed to remedy them.
- Preparations for the July 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
- Policies and regulations regarding the application of antidumping and countervailing duty laws.
- The impact of all trade agreements on the United States.
- Current exclusions and exemptions from the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.
- Migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico and China.
- Whether China is living up to its Phase One trade agreement with the U.S.
Whether or not Trump holds to his word for starting the tariff rollout on Saturday, companies will soon be feeling pressure to make potentially significant changes to their supply chains.
“My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America, and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth,” Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23.
“But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff – differing amounts, but a tariff – which will direct hundreds of billions of dollars and even trillions of dollars into our Treasury to strengthen our economy and pay down debt.
“Under the Trump administration, there will be no better place on Earth to create jobs, build factories or grow a company than right here in the good old USA.”
