Dynamar: Asia boxes will shift to trans-Panama routings
A new report forecasts that as much as 25 percent of the container cargo moving through U.S. West Coast ports may switch to all-water routings through the Panama Canal shortly after the expanded waterway opens in 2014 or 2015.
The report from the Dutch firm Dynamar, called Panama Canal Container Trades: Past, Present and Future, predicts that volumes to the U.S. East and Gulf coasts from the Far East could climb from 3.2 million TEU today to 15.7 million TEU by 2020.
'Our conclusion is that soon after the expanded Panama Canal opens for business in 2015, ultra large container ships of over 10,000 TEU up to the new Panamax size of 13,000 TEU will start using the waterway,” said Dirk Visser, the managing editor for Dynamar, which is based in Alkmaar, Netherlands. He sees about a quarter of that cargo growth coming from services focused on West Coast ports and using the intermodal system, which will then switch to all-water routes.
Visser also believes that while trans-Suez volumes from Far East ports will grow in the next few years because of limited capacity at the Panama Canal, much of that cargo could switch to trans-Panama routings after the expanded canal is opened.
'There are two worries for the East Coast ports involved, to have sufficient water depth and large enough cranes ' the ability to handle 22 boxes across deck, but at least 20,' he said.
Visser noted that there are 211 ultra large container ship on order or operating with capacity of more than 10,000 TEUs, and that all but 52 will be able to pass through the Panama Canal.
'There is more than enough cargo if the trade develops as forecasted to employ a big number of those ships in the Far East-East Coast trade,' Visser said. 'If you were to carry the total eastbound to the U.S. East Coast trade in 2020 entirely with 10,000 TEU ships, you would have 40 strings of those ships.
'We expect a swift shift to much larger ships. The carriers will want to take advantage of the economies of scale,' he said. 'The new panamax can be around 13,000 TEU, but it will be the U.S. East Coast ports that will determine the maximum size that can be used.
Dynamar isn't sure how many carriers are ordering the plus-10,000 TEU ships for the new markets offered by the new Panama Canal. But Vissar believes with the opening of an expanded canal shipping will see 'totally different trade patterns.'
Visser predicted that there may be a big rise in transshipment through Panamanian ports once the expanded canal opens. In mid-October there were 74 liner services that called at Panamanian ports. Of those, 39 passed through the canal and about half ' 19 of them ' called at ports in the country. Another 35 services called at Panamanian ports, but did not use the canal.
Visser believes that Panama may become an increasingly important transshipment hub, with the possibility that ultra large containerships will discharge cargo before or after transiting the canal, and transferring boxes to small feeder ships. He said a single containership could make a weekly run from Panama to U.S. East or Gulf Coast ports, and believes this could provide an effective way to take advantage of the reduced cost of short-sea shipping without using Jones Act tonnage that requires U.S.-built and operated vessels. ' Chris Dupin
