P&O NEDLLOYD PREDICTS WIDER GAP BETWEEN VESSEL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
The global containership fleet will increase by 10.5 percent this year before the effect of ship withdrawals, ahead of an expected 5-percent growth in global container trade, according to P&O Nedlloyd.
“Assuming some expansion in the second half of the year, one might realistically anticipate a 5-percent overall growth for 2002, well below the historic industry norm of between 8 and 9 percent,” said John Roberts, general manager, planning at the Anglo-Dutch carrier.
“There appears to be rather less of a feeling of pessimism now about the world economy than in recent months,” he added.
Although new ships will increase the container fleet by 10.5 percent this year, P&O Nedlloyd predicts that ship withdrawals will account for a 1.8-percent fleet reduction over the same period, with more old vessels ceasing to trade. This would mean a net fleet capacity expansion of 8.7 percent, as compared to global cargo growth of only about 5 percent.
“The resulting 3 to 4 percent of extra surplus will come in addition to the roughly 4 percent of current tonnage that is already in some form of lay up,” Roberts said.
He predicted that a surplus of tonnage “will probably remain until 2004” unless exceptionally high cargo growth occurs.