The Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI) has provided an interesting window into China’s ambition to continue growing its international shipping business.
China “will remain the largest cargo trader in the world and take a dominant role in global container shipping,” with imports and exports exceeding 200 million TEUs by 2030, SISI said.
Last year, China’s State Council said the country should establish “a safe, convenient, efficient, green and internationally competitive modern shipping system by 2020” that meets “the need for national economic security and foreign trade development.” The industry should continue to grow after that date and “keep raising China’s position in the international shipping business,” the State Council said.
Some of SISI’s conclusions are:
- China’s international shipping volume is expected to reach 6.2 billion tons in 2030, accounting for about 17 percent of the global total.
- China’s international shipping capacity will double by 2030 to account for about 15 percent of the world total and its fleet will be larger than Japan and Germany by 2020, and more than Greece by 2030. (The latest edition of UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport, which includes domestic tonnage, states that beneficial owners located in China have a fleet of 5,405 ships, the largest in the world in terms of numbers. The tonnage of its fleet, 200 million tons, was only smaller than that of Japan (229 million tons) and Greece (258 million tons).
- The coastal fleet will grow quickly, reaching 150 million tons in 2030, 60 percent larger than it is today.
- Cargo throughput at Chinese ports will double to exceed 25 billion tons in 2030, but the cargo mix will change greatly. While the ratio of container cargo will rise from the current 18.6 percent to 26.8 percent, roll-on/roll-off cargo is also expected to develop into a major port business.
- The share of cargo represented by dry-bulk cargo will fall below 50 percent due to slower shipping growth of coal and iron ore, and a slowdown of shipping demand for domestic trade.
- Grain and oil imports are expected to grow rapidly.
- In 2030, China’s coastal shipping volume will reach about 3.3 billion tons, and its coastal container-shipping volume will be about 116 million TEUs, taking up nearly half of China’s total coastal transportation.
- China’s shipping demand along the Yangtze River will approach 3.8 billion tons in 2030, making the river the main channel of resource distribution in the eastern, central and western regions of the country. Shipping volume of containers and liquefied natural gas will quadruple.
- China said private shipping enterprises will account for more than 70 percent of the total by 2030 and shift from being simply ocean carriers to global logistics service providers.
- Chinese enterprises are expected to “build port networks around the globe,” especially investing in ports in South America, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other developing countries.
This column was published in the August 2015 issue of American Shipper.
