WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance will exert significant influence on major policies affecting trucking, with major cost implications, for example, for truck automation and electric vehicles.
While the slate of pending regulations and legislation affecting trucking is long, below is a Top 10 list, in no particular order, of some of the most significant trucking policies that the Trump-Vance administration – along with Congress – will likely be taking on over the next four years.
1. Engine emissions
Biden-Harris: Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Phase 3 final rule applies to truck model years 2027 through 2032, relies heavily on battery-electric and hydrogen-electric power systems.
Trump-Vance: Will likely reset standards at levels it sees as technologically feasible for internal combustion engines, lengthen timelines for compliance and consider other ways to meet emissions targets, such as renewable diesel.
Cost implications: New diesel-powered electric tractors cost roughly $180,000, compared with up to $450,000 for a new electric tractor. Also, current EV batteries weigh as much as 12,000-16,000 pounds, which takes away from cargo capacity due to highway weight restrictions.
2. Speed limiters
Biden-Harris: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration proposed rule scheduled for January 2025.
Trump-Vance: Rule could be delayed – possibly indefinitely – as Vance has supported legislation prohibiting the use of speed-limiting devices in trucks.
Cost implications: Rule is endorsed by large carriers and their associations (American Trucking Associations, Truckload Carriers Association) to codify a technology already engaged in many large fleets. Owner-operators say the rule is unsafe and would introduce unfair competition with larger carriers.
3. Autonomous trucks
Biden-Harris: Planned to propose a regulation in December, Safe Integration of Automated Driving Systems-Equipped Commercial Motor Vehicles, addressing the highest levels (Level 4 and Level 5) of truck automation.
Trump-Vance: A return to a less regulatory, more industry-driven approach to truck automation as was the case during the first Trump administration, by encouraging more feedback from autonomous vehicle technology companies.
Cost implications: Potentially less onerous for the trucking industry because the Biden-Harris rule would have considered higher costs for training and certifying those performing enhanced inspections, as well as the potential for sidelining trucks and their drivers with additional inspections.
4. Trade/tariffs
Biden-Harris: Maintain current tariffs on certain goods from China while raising and expanding tariffs on green energy products, steel and aluminum.
Trump-Vance: Impose a 60% tariff on all U.S. imports from China and a baseline tariff on all U.S. imports of 10%-20%.
Cost implications: A net positive for domestic economic growth, which could spark a corresponding boost in trucking demand. Freight lobbying interests could also have more power in negotiating tariff exceptions.
5. Corporate taxes
Biden-Harris: A potential increase from 21 to as high as 28%.
Trump-Vance: Cutting to as low as 15% for companies that make their products in the U.S., and a potential repeal of the 12% federal excise tax (FET) on heavy trucks and trailers.
Cost implications: The more tax policy favors U.S. domestic products, the more immediate positive downstream effect on freight haulage from manufacturing plants like automobiles and household goods. Repealing the FET could provide incentives for investments in cleaner trucks.
6. Tort reform
Biden-Harris: Was in favor of labor law legislation that included expanding violations and monetary damages, similar to those found in lawsuits involving truck accidents.
Trump-Vance: May be more inclined to support legislation that would push cases involving such lawsuits into the federal court system.
Cost implications: A potential win against “nuclear verdicts” (awards in excess of $10 million) against trucking companies at the federal level and for tort reforms pushed by the trucking industry that have been gaining momentum at the state level.
7. Truck parking
Biden-Harris: Expansion of funding through the Infrastructure, Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA).
Trump-Vance: Vance was a co-sponsor of the Truck Parking Safety Improvement Act, a bill spearheaded – but yet to be enacted – by the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association.
Cost implications: Reintroduced legislation would dedicate $755 million in grant money over the next three years specifically for expanding truck parking.
8. Independent contractors
Biden-Harris: The Department of Labor’s final rule on independent contracting made truck drivers more likely to be seen as employees and not independent contractors in disputes with employers.
Trump-Vance: An expected return to policy put in place during Trump’s first term that the Biden administration reversed, making it easier for the DOL to find that a worker was an independent contractor rather than an employee.
Cost implications: Administrative costs saved by carriers would be the responsibility of independent contractors.
9. Oil
Biden-Harris: U.S. production of crude oil is at an all-time high – 13.5 million barrels a day – according to the Energy Information Administration.
Trump-Vance: “Drill, baby, drill.”
Cost implications: ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods recently told CNBC that drilling activity at his company would not be impacted by who is in the White House: “I’m not sure how drill, baby, drill translates into policy.” However, what might cause oil prices to rise – and by extension, a rise in diesel costs for trucking – would be a new round of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
10. Infrastructure legislation
Biden-Harris: $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill/$110 billion for roads, bridges, major projects.
Trump-Vance: Infrastructure reauthorization for 2026.
Cost implications: Just as President Biden had significant influence on the size, scope and direction of the IIJA, President-elect Trump could exert his influence on the direction of the next infrastructure bill, including paring back environmental provisions and setting aside more money for expanding highway and bridge capacity.
Disclosure: JD Vance is an investor in FreightWaves SONAR through the Rise of the Rest fund.
