With near record-setting truck crashes, research shows that the handful of drivers convicted of failing to obey warning lights are 243% more likely to crash in the future.
Other forms of reckless driving more than doubled the likelihood of another accident. That’s according to the American Transportation Research Institute’s “Predicting Truck Crash Involvement: 2022 Update” released Tuesday.
A total of 4,965 people died in large-truck crashes in 2020, according to the National Safety Council. The number of deaths decreased 1% from 2019 but is still up 31% since 2011. The majority of deaths in large truck crashes are occupants of other vehicles (71%), followed by truck occupants (17%) and non-occupants, primarily pedestrians and bicyclists (12%).
“With truck crashes increasing, there is no better time to have this data in our hands,” said Dan Horvath, vice president of safety policy at American Trucking Associations.
Since 2016, fatal truck-involved crashes have increased by 7.2%, ATRI reported. The number of fatal truck crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has increased 2.8%.
Driver data, not carrier data, used to predict truck crashes
Beginning in 2005, ATRI has used statistical methods to model predictions of future crash involvement. The 2022 update is its fourth. Carrier performance drove crash analysis before ATRI’s crash predictor study.
ATRI used driver-specific data from the Motor Carrier Management Information System and the Commercial Driver’s License Information System. Drivers receiving inspections during the three months of January through March 2019 comprise the 2022 driver database. .
A total of 583,805 unique U.S.-based truck drivers were identified. They were involved in 38,797 crashes reported to FMCSA. Towaways accounted for 65.6% of the crashes. Just 5.8% of drivers — 34,117 — were involved in a crash during the study period.
Top crash predictors point to another crash
The top four crash predictors pointing to the likelihood of another crash, based on specific violations, convictions and prior crashes, were:
- Failure to yield right of way — 141%, up 39.6% from 2018 to 2022.
- Failure to use/improper signal conviction — 116%, up 41.5% from 2018-22.
- Previous crash history — 113%, up 24.8% from 2018-22.
- Reckless driving violation — 104%, down 8% from 2018-22.
The 23 drivers who failed to obey a warning light or flasher accounted for a 243% greater risk for a second crash. But the sample size was too small to make the list.
Nine other violation categories showed a statistically significant relationship — 31% to 53% — with future crashes. Twelve other conviction categories showed statistical links to future crashes. Most of those showed a greater than 50% likelihood of a future crash.
Apart from driver behavior, ATRI found that increased use of LED lights and disc brakes led to fewer violations for each mechanical area during inspections.
Younger drivers scored better than older drivers on seven of 21 crash predictor categories and overall were safer than older drivers. But the population of drivers under 21 years old is practically infinitesimal (1,742) compared to drivers over 24 years of age (475.052).
Male drivers continue to be more likely than females to have violations, convictions and crash involvement for all statistically significant events, ATRI reported. Predicted future crashes by female drivers rose to 2.7% from 2.5% in 2018.
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