Colography: 2005 record year for U.S. air exports
Atlanta-based cargo market consultancy company The Colography Group Inc. Wednesday forecast that the 2005 U.S. air export shipments and revenue figures will reach record levels.
Colography reported that after the first three quarters of 2005, nearly 68 million shipments moved in U.S. air export service. The consultancy anticipates full year export shipments to exceed 90 million, surpassing the 88.7 million shipment record set in 2000.
Air export revenue for the first nine months of 2005 was about $6.9 billion, Colography said. The company predicts that the full year export revenue will go past the $9 billion barrier for the first time, breaking the $8.5 billion record set in 2004.
Colography said that during the first nine months of 2005, there were 1.85 billion U.S. domestic air shipments with a value of about $30 billion. Domestic shipments and revenue for the full year 2005 are projected to beat 2004 results, but fall short of the records set in 2000.
“The effects of a weak U.S. dollar, a resilient U.S. economy and a rebounding global marketplace will make 2005 a strong and, in the case of U.S. air exports, a record-setting year for air cargo,” said Ted Scherck, Colography’s president. “Though we do not yet have final results for the fourth quarter of 2005, there is no reason to believe it should be any weaker than the quarters that preceded it.”
“The fourth quarter is historically the strongest period of the year because of the accelerated activity surrounding the peak holiday season,” Colography said.
Some key findings in the third quarter 2005 edition of Colography’s “U.S. Domestic and Export Air Traffic and Yield Analysis By Competitor and Market Segment” report include:
* On the U.S. air export side, the six main competitors — FedEx, UPS, U.S. Postal Service, DHL, EGL Inc. and BAX Global — controlled 77.3 percent of the shipment market during the third quarter of 2005.
* The “all other competitors” category — comprised mostly of airlines and freight forwarders — saw their shipment share decline to 22.7 percent as of the end of 2005’s third quarter from 24.8 percent in the first quarter of 2004.
* On the domestic front in 2005, quarterly revenue and tonnage gained on a sequential basis. However, shipment volumes declined by more than 10 million from the second to the third quarter, driven by continued diversion of lightweight, short-haul air traffic to the ground.
* DHL Express reported sequential gains in domestic air shipment share from 10.2 percent in the first quarter to 11.4 percent in the third quarter.
* USPS held the largest domestic shipment share through the first nine months. However, its share of the market declined with each quarter, from 37.9 percent in the first quarter to 36.1 percent in the third quarter. FedEx Express’ share declined 0.5 percent over that period, while DHL’s and UPS’s shares increased.
Colography will publish the fourth quarter and full-year 2005 results early April.