MOL predicts full ships until end of 2005
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said it has calculated that the average load factors of transpacific ships sailing from Asia to North America will remain above 95 percent this year and next, before decreasing slightly in 2006.
Supply and demand estimates prepared by MOL predict that eastbound transpacific cargo volumes in 2004 and 2005 will closely match the increase in ship capacity, thereby extending the current situation of nearly full ships. MOL forecasts that eastbound vessel load factors will average 96.9 percent in 2004, 96.7 percent in 2005 and 92.9 percent in 2006. This would be the result of cargo volume rising 9.2 percent this year and 7.8 percent in both 2005 and 2006, while capacity would go up by 9.7 percent this year, 8 percent in 2005 and 12.3 percent in 2006.
In the westbound transpacific trade, though, MOL predicts a continuing fall in vessel utilization, despite the recent recovery of the westbound market. MOL estimates that westbound ships will have average load factors of 59.1 percent this year, 57.3 percent in 2005 and 53.1 percent in 2006.
MOL also predicts very high utilization factors in the Asia/Europe westbound trade of 99.2 percent in 2004, 95.1 percent in 2005 and 92.1 percent in 2006.
The Japanese carrier’s forecasts suggest a relatively soft landing of the container shipping market once the record amount of new ships currently on the orderbook has been delivered.