REPORT PREDICTS HIGH VOLUME, LOW PRICES IN WORLD SHIPBUILDING
Worldwide volumes for the construction of new ships will remain high in the next 15 years, but prices will decline at least during the first half of the this decade, according to a report by Ocean Shipping Consultants.
World shipbuilding witnessed rapid growth in activity in recent years, with “volumes not seen since the shipbuilding boom years of the mid-1970s,” the U.K.-based consultants said.
The report predicts that world shipbuilding volume will rise from about 27 million gross tons a year in 1996-2000 to some 29 million gross tons a year in 2001-2005 and some 31 million gross tons in 2006-2010. Activity will then contract to about 29 million gross tons a year in 2011-2015.
The replacement of tankers, due to the introduction of new, stricter legislation covering tanker safety and anti-pollution measures, will be a major factor in generating demand for new ships.
The report predicts that 38 percent of new vessel tonnage in 2001-2005 will come from building tankers, compared to 24 percent for bulk carriers and 15.5 percent for containerships.
In the 2006-2010 period, the respective proportions for the three major vessel types will be 32 percent, 29 percent and 17.5 percent.
Between 2011 and 2015, new tankers will account for only 28 percent of shipbuilding tonnage, followed by 26.5 percent for new bulk carriers and 19 percent for new container vessels, the report said.
Other, less statistically significant vessel types, such as gas/chemical carriers and general cargo vessels, will also be built.
Ocean Shipping Consultants forecast a weakening of shipbuilding prices in the short term as building berth capacity becomes available in the wake of large-scale ordering in recent years. It predicted a price decline generally over the first half of the current decade, followed by a strengthening of prices in later years.
The report estimates that an average of $17.6 billion a year will be invested in the construction of new ships, worldwide, between 2001 and 2015.