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Retail, CPG industries brace for election results

Food regulations, the FTC, tariffs and taxes could all be overhauled

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Latest The Stockout show explores sock puppets

This is how RFK Jr. sees U.S. food regulators. (Image: FWTV)

On Monday’s The Stockout show, which focuses on topics relevant to shippers in the retail and CPG industries, Grace Sharkey and I discussed how the election could impact those sectors. If Trump is elected, the Federal Trade Commission could look much different. That’s of particular importance to the retail industry since the FTC has been especially active in addressing what it considers anticompetitive threats in that sector. Those threats include suing to stop the Kroger-Albertsons acquisition and suing Amazon for what the agency considers the illegal use of a monopoly position in e-commerce. 

If Trump is elected, it could also have a major impact on how the food industry is regulated, particularly if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is given a prominent role overseeing food regulation. Kennedy believes the food industry is “regulated by sock puppets” that have been far too lenient in allowing harmful chemicals and dyes in everyday products. As a result, many CPG companies may have to overhaul their formulas, which could be costly and make them less appealing to some consumers.  


Monday’s show can be seen here, and check out the full The Stockout playlist here

NRF reiterates stance against tariffs

This is not a surprise since the National Retail Federation has said this before, and since tariffs would disrupt their members’ supply chains, increase their costs and reduce sales volume given the resulting higher retail prices. Matt Shay, chief executive of the NRF, arguing that tariffs are a tax on U.S. companies and consumers, quoted estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that found that existing tariffs cost an estimated $1,500-$3,000 per household, which would rise to more than $4,000 per household under a second Trump administration. 

Other comments from the NRF include its expectation for holiday sales this season to grow 2.5%-3.5% from last year and that the strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association will have no effect on holiday sales.


For more detail, see Stuart Chirls’ article here.

Marten’s results show it’s not easy making money in reefer

SONAR shows average reefer rates roughly in line with 2023 levels but well below 2022 levels. 
John Kingston’s writeup of Marten’s results is not going to persuade anyone to start up an asset-heavy refrigerated trucking company, and it stands to reason that the private reefer companies are under similar pressure. Margins deteriorated in each of Marten’s four segments with a notable deterioration from 97.2% to 100.2% in its truckload segment. In previous earnings releases, management said it was unwilling to cut rates in the down market, but this was not mentioned in the third-quarter earnings release. The implication was that it was forced to cut rates in the past quarter to attract loads.

Michael Baudendistel

Mike Baudendistel is the Head of Intermodal Solutions at FreightWaves and author of The Stockout, focusing on the rail intermodal, CPG and retail industries. Prior to joining FreightWaves, Baudendistel served as a senior sell-side equity research analyst covering the publicly traded railroads, and companies that manufacture and lease railroad equipment, trucks, trailers, engines and components. His experience following the freight transportation industry also touched the truckload, Jones Act barge and domestic logistics industries. He is a CFA Charterholder.