Trade prospects expected to boost container industry
Ocean container traffic to and from the United States will grow faster than the economy as a whole, benefiting shipping lines and freight forwarders, according to Paul Bingham, principal with economic and financial forecasting firm Global Insight.
“The global recovery is at hand,” Bingham said in a Nov. 1 address to the Western Cargo Conference in Albuquerque, N.M., citing the 7.2-percent growth in U.S. third quarter gross domestic product announced by the government last week.
Overall, container imports are expected to grow 11 percent this year, 9 percent next year and 7 percent in 2005. The increase in container activity is led again by the transpacific lanes, which are expected to increase 16 percent this year, 11 percent in 2004 and 8 percent in 2005.
Imports from the West Coast of South America are expected to grow 7 percent, 5 percent and 4 percent respectively over the next three years, while east coast traffic will be 2 percent, 5 percent and 4 percent during the same period, he predicted. Trans-Atlantic traffic will grow 2 percent this year, 5 percent in 2004 and 4 percent in 2005.
Container exports, which continue to lag imports, will grow in the four percent to five percent range during the next three years he said.