Welcome to the WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Newsletter presented by Nikola. In this issue, trucks drive Halloween; “huge Christmas gift” for truckers; driver shortage contested; and more.
Clean. Quiet. Smart. Sustainability delivered today. Nikola’s Class 8 battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks are available now. Learn more about incentives in your area.
Halloween: A truck brought it
Armstrong Transport Group
Trick or Treat — As your kids transform themselves into mini final-milers dressed as Ray Gun and Spider-Man, now’s a good time to remind them that the Halloween supply chain wouldn’t be possible without trucks, ships, trains and the people who make it happen.
NRF
According to the National Retail Federation, 67% of households will hand out candy this year – down 1% from 2023. Spending has also fallen $600 million to $11.6 billion from last year’s record-setting $12.2 billion.
That may seem like a bit of surprise, given the record import volumes we saw during the season leading up to the holiday.
Thomas Net reports, “The peak season for U.S. seaborne imports to meet Halloween demand occurred between May and August. These imports were 18.6% more than last year, with 33,098 TEUs in shipments – the highest figure for the period since at least 2007.”
Remember that International Longshoremen’s Association port strike in early October? A lot of shippers were pulling forward freight in anticipation of those disruptions.
While the drop in sales may look bad, this is still the second-highest Halloween spending on record and far above 2019 numbers of $8.8 billion. Still, inflation has caused some consumers to put the pumpkins back in the patch.
Instacart
Take one – Halloween is nothing without candy, and candy goes nowhere without trucks, but did you know that it moves in reefers? That’s right: To keep them from melting, sticking and blooming, your Snickers are shipped in temperature-controlled trailers. Optym reports, “Most candy moves on trucks at 50-65 degrees Fahrenheit.”
Since we’re in the 2020s, it isn’t just trucks moving sweet treats. Gig drivers for Instacart are out delivering too. They just released their data surrounding the holidays and found out Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups are the most popular candy on their platform.
What size candy are people giving out?
- 83% plan to purchase fun-size candies in a variety pack.
- 36% will purchase full-size candies.
- 22% will splurge for king-size candies.
Maine defied the nation by ordering candy corn 138% more than the national average. I shake my head, Maine.
FreightWaves
Smashing pumpkins – This spooky season 47% of Americans will carve a jack-o’-lantern. That amounts to 1.3 billion pounds of pumpkins delivered at a cost to consumers of over $808 million and 15,000 truckloads.
But, Halloween is far from the costliest annual spending event. Back-to-college takes that prize. For holidays, Christmas and the winter holiday season are king.
For more WTT Halloween coverage, check out our show with Roadie on Spirit Halloween’s final-mile program and our special A Very WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Halloween.
Check your candy for spot market razor blades
Stocking stuffers – We’re already a third of the way through Q4, and we still haven’t seen an end to our two-and-a-half-year-long freight recession. So, is there any reason for optimism?
With the election next week, we should start to see some clarity. Regardless of who wins, supply chain leaders will know which way to point the ship.
This election is especially critical to those in supply chain as the candidates have far different approaches to foreign trade. Donald Trump, for example, wants to raise tariffs 60% on most Chinese goods.
The Hill reports, “Businesses are preparing for the spate of new tariffs on Chinese goods promised by former President Trump on the campaign trail, making advanced purchases of imported goods and buying up extra warehouse space ahead of the election.”
It’s hard to tell exactly how many imports were pulled forward due to anxiety around the ILA strike and a potential Trump win, but soon, we’ll know one way or another how operations need to proceed.
Although, there is still a major concern that the ILA will decide to go on strike on Jan. 15 when it negotiates the automation side of its master agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance.
The good news is that FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller is seeing positive signs in the data.
Are we bouncing back off the bottom?
Werner CEO Derek Leathers told analysts on Tuesday, “I don’t want the read-through to be that I’m bullish on the fourth quarter. I can’t speak to where others are coming from. But what I know is that in our customer base, we believe we’re going to have both a price and volume incremental life this peak season compared to last.”
Other earnings have been more mixed:
Hub Group – Total revenue down 3.7% on weak Q3 market.
C.H. Robinson – Management has been touting sequential improvements at the 3PL, because year-on-year comparisons remain weak. Wall Street has responded, with the stock price up more than 22% in the past three months.
XPO – Less-than-truckload carrier XPO beat third-quarter expectations and outlined a plan for outsize yield and margin growth.
Heartland – Truckload carrier Heartland Express reported another loss in the third quarter and said cost cutting alone won’t return it to profitability.
Landstar – Truck broker Landstar System said Tuesday it expects no material lift in the freight market for the remainder of 2024.
Covenant – Sees growth in freight revenue amid market “bottom.”
What are you seeing from your seat? Are things tightening, loose as ever, and how are you prepping? Email me.
Washington State Patrol has a gentle reminder
Washington State Patrol
Driver shortage narrative destroyed?
Myth-busters – The American Trucking Associations’ promotion of a perpetual driver shortage has come under attack in a new study commissioned by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
John Kingston reports, “Calling talk of a driver shortage ‘spurious,’ a more than 170-page study on long-distance truckers from the National Academy of Sciences says the constant turnover in the ranks of drivers should be expected given the fundamental business practices of carriers.”
Last year, the ATA clapped back in an article with no byline as it appears no author wanted credit for it. Their anonymous journalist argues, “ATA isn’t in the business of peddling narratives; that’s FreightWaves’ lane.”
Sure thing, ATA. Ninety-five percent of contracted loads are being accepted and rates have been in the toilet for two and half years because there aren’t enough drivers. Keep telling yourself that isn’t a “narrative.”
Earlier this year, FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller challenged the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association and the ATA to debate on the driver shortage at our annual F3 conference in November.
Just as nobody at the ATA wanted to put a name on that article, nobody there wants to put a face on the stage at F3 to prove the case. Unfortunate, but I do look forward to OOIDA’s presentation at the event.
Friday on WHAT THE TRUCK?!?
Open To Work: The Supply Chain Hiring Episode – Friday live on WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, I’m joined by special guest co-host Morgan MacDermaid. We’re teaming up to help get our brothers and sisters who are between roles hired. Before becoming a podcaster, I had a brutal time between jobs in 2017, so this topic hits very close to my heart.
We’ll meet three amazing candidates from sales, operations and leadership who are all looking to add value to an organization in this space.
Tune in to learn about their struggles finding a job, and Morgan and I will give you all the tools you need to give yourself the best chance to get hired.
Plus, we’ll look at how AI is creeping into the hiring and recruitment process and why that’s bad news for you.
Catch new shows live at noon EDT Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays on FreightWaves LinkedIn, Facebook, X or YouTube, or on demand by looking up WHAT THE TRUCK?!? on your favorite podcast player and at 5 p.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Road Dog Trucking Channel 146.
Halloweenmaxing
Halloween logo – Just in time for spooky season, we dropped our latest shirt in the shop. Head on over to WTTGear.com to get our newest merch! Use code WTTFans for 10% off.
STP x F3
Get your tickets to the logistics event of the year, F3, right here. (That’s my discount link.)
Now on demand
A Very WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Halloween
How scary is the Q4 trucking market?; trucker loses 200 pounds; carrier bankruptcy
The rest of the noise
- Washington’s supply chain at risk with EV mandates
- Texas driver honored as TCA Highway Angel for saving lives in Helene aftermath
- Virginia engineer sentenced in $15.6M investor fraud scheme
- Automation, speed limiters on former FMCSA deputy’s radar for 2025
Thanks for reading, and feel free to forward this to a friend.
Subscribe to the show
Or simply look up WHAT THE TRUCK?!? on your favorite podcast player. Or, if you have SiriusXM, tune in to the show Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Road Dog Trucking Channel 146.
Exit through the gift shop: WTTGear.com
Don’t be a stranger,
Dooner
